← Archive · The Chippewa Champions League
2019
Bailey bullies the bracket from the six seed
He led the league in scoring, drew a six seed for his trouble, and knocked out the three and the two on the way to a second title
Bailey drafted two quarterbacks late and then had to decide which one he believed in. Philip Rivers came to him at 125, Lamar Jackson at 132, and while the rest of the league was still treating the second one as a novelty, Bailey had already cut Rivers loose and let somebody else collect the 235 points he went on to score. Jackson outscored every other man Bailey started all season. The same instinct ran through the autumn: his drafted defense gave him eight points and he dropped it, pulled the 49ers off a wire where nobody had wanted them, and started them thirteen weeks running. He made 38 adds in all. A fifth of everything he scored came from men he never drafted, which is not a man riding a good draft so much as a man who refuses to sit still.
None of it bought him a seed. He opened 3-0 and led the league in points from there to the end, and the schedule kept pointing the hottest team in the field at him. Only Rademaker absorbed more points against. An all-play record of 146-49 says Bailey was the best team in this league by a distance, and the standings handed him 8-5 and the six seed. Week ten had him 6-4 and third, outscoring everybody and gaining nothing for it. He is not blameless: he left 31 points on his bench in his worst week and roughly ten a week across the season, and for a team that won the scoring title by eighty points, that is a good habit gone lazy.
The bracket settled the argument in three weeks. Dang came first, the three seed, the man who had taken the 2018 final off Bailey, and Bailey put up 111 points and ended him. Calderon was next, a two seed built out of a 4-0 record in close games and the thirteenth-best scoring in the league, and he lasted one afternoon. Then MacDougall, which belongs to another part of this page. Five years after Gotta Catch Jamaal, Bailey has his second title, and this one he took the hard way through everybody the schedule had spent thirteen weeks protecting.
The Final
Lamar Jackson scored 30 points and that is the whole of Bailey's case. The rest of his lineup was a mess. DeAndre Hopkins gave him 2 points and Zach Ertz 3, while Raheem Mostert scored 11 sitting down. He also started the 49ers defense for 6 with the Falcons sitting there at 10, which is loyalty of a sort. Twelve points ended up in the wrong slots and none of it mattered, because MacDougall managed his roster worse on the one afternoon it counted. Matt Ryan put up 16 points in street clothes while Jameis Winston started and returned 11. Chris Conley added 12 from the bench and Michael Gallup 10. No single one of those swaps covers a 14 point margin, and only all three at once get there. That arrangement is MacDougall's best possible lineup, and it scores 82.5 against Bailey's 82.1. He lost the 2019 title to his own lineup card by four tenths of a point.
What They Started in the Final
Bailey 82.1
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 29.8 |
| RB | Mark Ingram II | 15.1 |
| WR | Breshad Perriman | 10.2 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 2.3 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 2.8 |
| FLEX | Austin Ekeler | 6.9 |
| DST | 49ers D/ST | 6.0 |
| K | Randy Bullock | 9.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Raheem Mostert | 11.3 | |
| Falcons D/ST | 10.0 | |
| Jacob Hollister | 6.4 | |
| Mike Boone | 3.3 | |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2.6 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 94.4, so 12.3 points sat in the wrong places.
MacDougall 68.0
| QB | Jameis Winston | 11.0 |
| RB | Ezekiel Elliott | 8.4 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | 6.6 |
| WR | Allen Robinson II | 5.3 |
| TE | Austin Hooper | 8.2 |
| FLEX | Adrian Peterson | 11.5 |
| DST | Buccaneers D/ST | 12.0 |
| K | Chris Boswell | 5.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Matt Ryan | 16.0 | |
| Chris Conley | 11.6 | |
| Michael Gallup | 9.8 | |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6.1 | |
| James White | 2.9 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 82.5, so 14.5 points sat in the wrong places.
The Playoffs
Hynes finished fifth in the league on points and spent the bracket at home. Four of the eight teams that got in scored less than he did, and he went 0-3 in games decided by under ten points to finish 6-7, one win outside. The all-play had him worth 7.1 wins. He also lost the 2014 final to Bailey, so he has now watched that man collect both of his titles from a comfortable distance. Hartnett's version is worse. He scored the sixth-most points in the league, lost all four of his close games and finished 4-9 and fourteenth, three years after winning the whole thing. Calderon scored the thirteenth-most points in that same sixteen-team field, won all four of his close games and was handed the two seed for it.
Four of the seven bracket games went to the lower seed, and the seeding had it coming. Maciuba's one seed was the honest one, built on 10-3 and the second-most points in the league, and it survived week 14 by beating Nofziger 94.4 to 93.7 before MacDougall put 119 points on him and sent him out. Nofziger's ending is the one to feel something about. He posted the highest score of the season, 147 points in week 8, dragged himself from thirteenth after week 3 to seventh by week 13, then scored 94 points in a playoff game and lost it by less than a point. Dang went out with 99, which wins most weeks and won nothing that afternoon.
No bracket game turned on a benching, which is the only thing about the fortnight that went smoothly. The two worst lineup calls of the entire season came in weeks 15 and 16 and both belonged to Rademaker, who had finished 3-10 and was playing for absolutely nothing. In week 15 he started Derrius Guice at running back for zero and left Kenyan Drake's 39 points on his bench. In week 16 he started Derrius Guice at running back for zero and left Kenyan Drake's 30 points on his bench. Bench added a flourish of his own in week 16, starting Darius Slayton for zero with Tyler Boyd's 25 points sitting behind him, two weeks after MacDougall had already knocked him out of the thing.
The Bracket
Seeds on the left of each pairing. Every line reads left to right, so a man's whole run is the path back from wherever he stopped.
Where They Stood
League rank after every week of the regular season -
record, then points scored.
Green is a manager who made the playoffs
Red is one who finished
inside the top 8 but missed the playoffs
because the league seeds on record within a division rather than league rank.
The Regular Season
All-play is the record a team would have had against every other team every week rather than against the one the schedule gave it. Deserved is that all-play win rate put back over the games actually played, so Dang's 155–55 is a .738 rate across fourteen games and 10.3 wins earned. Luck is wins minus deserved: a team on +3 collected three more than its scoring earned, and a team on −3 was owed three it never got.
| 1 | Maciuba The Real Chris | 1179.9 | 929.1 | 139-56 | 10-3 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Dang Edelman loves a Good Fig Newton | 1156.8 | 928.9 | 132-63 | 9-4 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Bailey Lamarkianism 4ever | 1240.8 | 1098.9 | 146-49 | 8-5 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 4 |
| 4 | Bench _ The Brutes | 1018.4 | 1064.6 | 96-99 | 8-5 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 2 |
| 5 | MacDougall Ezekiel Elliott 25:17 | 982.4 | 983.5 | 91-104 | 8-5 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Calderon Amari Pooper | 970.3 | 1088.6 | 85-110 | 8-5 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Nofziger Jenkentown Ian's Book Club | 1105.6 | 1023.2 | 109-86 | 7-6 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Kane Edith Cox | 991.3 | 1040.6 | 99-96 | 7-6 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | Hynes The Breakfast Club | 1063.6 | 997.4 | 106-89 | 6-7 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Dorenbusch The Muff Diving Snorkel Squad | 977.4 | 1026.3 | 87-108 | 6-7 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 11 | 15 |
| 11 | Croushore The Real Chris | 859.1 | 942.3 | 70-125 | 6-7 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 1 |
| 12 | Nichols Boom's Pick For the Game | 999.9 | 1047.5 | 83-112 | 5-8 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Dearolf The REAL Chris | 995.8 | 1062.7 | 90-105 | 5-8 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 12 | 6 |
| 14 | Hartnett Adam Mr.Thielan Your Girl | 1025.7 | 1048.6 | 87-108 | 4-9 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 14 | 7 |
| 15 | Noell Team Noell | 921.5 | 1019.2 | 70-125 | 4-9 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Rademaker Fidel Cashflow | 912.9 | 1100.2 | 70-125 | 3-10 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 16 | 16 |
The Draft
MacDougall drafts most, Bailey drafts best
MacDougall's fifteen picks scored 2185 points, more than anybody else's, and his mean of 0.39 sigma says the total came from being right repeatedly rather than from one swing. A.J. Brown at 229 was worth 97 points above what that slot returns. Four of those picks were made by the software, which is a peculiar way to lead a league in drafting. Bench came next at 2078 picked with six robot selections and not one bust on his board, and Maciuba got to 2002 points with no robot and no bust, including the Patriots defense at 173 for 156 points above the slot at 2.85 sigma. Bailey was only fourth on the raw total, but Lamar Jackson at 132 came back 192 points above what pick 132 is worth, 3.3 sigma, the best pick of a decade by this measure, and he turned it into the title from the 6 seed.
Two managers did not draft at all. Nofziger handed all fifteen picks to the robot, which spent 236 on Eli Manning and 213 on Marcus Mariota for -2.57 and -2.15 sigma. Kane's machine did worse, blowing pick 22 on Antonio Brown for 152 points below the slot and finishing the board 288 points under its slots. Dak Prescott at 86 was a lovely pick, and the credit for it does not belong to Kane either. The two ugliest sigma figures of the whole draft are quarterbacks, Calderon's Roethlisberger at 105 at -4.0 and Dang's Newton at 67 at -3.94, and neither man misread a player so much as wagered on a body. Rademaker's Josh Allen at 176 is precisely the pick this method exists to reward.
Noell finished last and not close, 427 points below his slots at -0.5 sigma a pick, with A.J. Green at 57 alone costing 126. Dearolf landed one hit, Russell Wilson at 102, against six busts starting with David Johnson at sixth overall, which is being wrong repeatedly rather than unlucky once. Nichols did not produce a single pick a full sigma to the good. Croushore held the first pick in the draft, took Saquon Barkley for 174 points and never found another hit anywhere, which is most of why he scored 859 points, fewer than anyone in the league.
What Each Draft Was Worth
- Picked — Total points scored by all draft picks
- Kept — Total points scored while he still owned them, bench included
- Utilized — Share of everything they scored that the manager actually started
- Elsewhere — What his picks went on to score off his roster, by trade or by drop
- Best value — His best single pick, in points above what that draft slot has historically returned, and how unusual that was
VOR − E[VOR | pick] σ = (VOR − E[VOR | pick]) / SD[VOR | pick]
| Best value | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacDougall | 2185.3 | 1726.7 | 49% | 458.6 | 4 | A.J. Brown 229, +97.5 (1.87σ) |
| Bench | 2078.0 | 1704.1 | 58% | 373.9 | 6 | Darren Waller 223, +107.4 (1.98σ) |
| Maciuba | 2001.5 | 1642.1 | 62% | 359.4 | Patriots D/ST 173, +156.2 (2.85σ) | |
| Bailey | 1996.9 | 1502.4 | 60% | 494.5 | Lamar Jackson 132, +191.6 (3.3σ) | |
| Hynes | 1994.9 | 1726.4 | 54% | 268.5 | Aaron Jones 42, +114.9 (1.97σ) | |
| Rademaker | 1861.7 | 1504.4 | 45% | 357.3 | Josh Allen 176, +70.3 (1.31σ) | |
| Nofziger | 1802.1 | 1507.6 | 63% | 294.5 | 15 | Steelers D/ST 204, +125.0 (2.21σ) |
| Dorenbusch | 1780.1 | 1422.1 | 55% | 358.0 | 1 | Harrison Butker 114, +64.6 (1.12σ) |
| Calderon | 1764.4 | 1233.8 | 47% | 530.6 | Derrick Henry 24, +103.4 (1.56σ) | |
| Dang | 1704.6 | 1408.5 | 72% | 296.1 | Christian McCaffrey 3, +157.8 (2.16σ) | |
| Nichols | 1700.1 | 1312.0 | 55% | 388.1 | 1 | Kenny Golladay 46, +48.0 (0.87σ) |
| Hartnett | 1612.0 | 1441.0 | 64% | 171.0 | 1 | Dalvin Cook 26, +71.4 (1.08σ) |
| Dearolf | 1533.2 | 1088.1 | 56% | 445.1 | Russell Wilson 102, +96.0 (1.77σ) | |
| Kane | 1452.4 | 1137.3 | 60% | 315.1 | 15 | Dak Prescott 86, +102.4 (1.83σ) |
| Croushore | 1430.4 | 1270.1 | 61% | 160.3 | 7 | Saints D/ST 128, +52.8 (0.9σ) |
| Noell | 1313.6 | 1058.5 | 65% | 255.1 | 7 | DJ Chark Jr. 185, +61.9 (1.11σ) |
Hits and Busts
- Value — What the whole draft was worth against the slots it cost, summed over every pick
- Hits and busts — Picks that landed a standard deviation either side of what their slot usually returns
| Hits | Busts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MacDougall | +335.8 | A.J. Brown 229, 1.87σ Jameis Winston 124, 1.39σ Austin Hooper 92, 1.02σ | Dion Lewis 165, -1.16σ Giovani Bernard 188, -1.04σ |
| Bench | +278.7 | Darren Waller 223, 1.98σ | — |
| Bailey | +239.4 | Lamar Jackson 132, 3.3σ Austin Ekeler 68, 1.55σ Dallas Goedert 228, 1.22σ | Dante Pettis 93, -1.5σ Justin Jackson 189, -1.33σ |
| Maciuba | +234.0 | Patriots D/ST 173, 2.85σ Mark Andrews 141, 1.68σ Dan Bailey 237, 1.25σ | — |
| Hynes | +188.4 | Aaron Jones 42, 1.97σ Jason Witten 234, 1.1σ | Devin Funchess 170, -1.59σ |
| Rademaker | +18.3 | Josh Allen 176, 1.31σ | Derrius Guice 49, -1.69σ James Conner 16, -1.08σ |
| Dorenbusch | -30.7 | Harrison Butker 114, 1.12σ | Kareem Hunt 82, -1.08σ |
| Calderon | -33.0 | Derrick Henry 24, 1.56σ DeVante Parker 184, 1.51σ Chiefs D/ST 233, 1.45σ Matt Gay 216, 1.18σ Chris Godwin 56, 1.1σ | Ben Roethlisberger 105, -4.0σ Donte Moncrief 137, -1.72σ Kalen Ballage 152, -1.18σ |
| Nofziger | -67.7 | Steelers D/ST 204, 2.21σ | Eli Manning 236, -2.57σ Marcus Mariota 213, -2.15σ Keke Coutee 140, -1.13σ Jalen Richard 172, -1.05σ |
| Dang | -98.6 | Christian McCaffrey 3, 2.16σ Wil Lutz 126, 1.12σ Kyler Murray 131, 1.04σ | Cam Newton 67, -3.94σ Buddy Howell 227, -1.51σ Kerryon Johnson 35, -1.35σ |
| Hartnett | -118.3 | Dalvin Cook 26, 1.08σ | Darwin Thompson 199, -1.28σ David Njoku 71, -1.02σ |
| Nichols | -153.9 | — | C.J. Anderson 179, -1.84σ JuJu Smith-Schuster 19, -1.39σ Quincy Enunwa 238, -1.26σ |
| Croushore | -233.8 | — | Josh Gordon 64, -1.27σ Stephen Gostkowski 129, -1.02σ Justice Hill 192, -1.02σ |
| Dearolf | -261.0 | Russell Wilson 102, 1.77σ | Darrell Henderson Jr. 134, -1.59σ Harry Douglas 155, -1.58σ David Johnson 6, -1.19σ Brandin Cooks 38, -1.08σ Ito Smith 219, -1.08σ Geronimo Allison 123, -1.02σ |
| Kane | -288.5 | Dak Prescott 86, 1.83σ Bills D/ST 150, 1.04σ | Antonio Brown 22, -2.28σ Ty Montgomery 203, -1.27σ |
| Noell | -427.4 | DJ Chark Jr. 185, 1.11σ | A.J. Green 57, -2.18σ Damien Harris 200, -1.66σ DeSean Jackson 121, -1.27σ T.Y. Hilton 40, -1.01σ |
The Waiver Wire
Nofziger nets Fitzpatrick and needs nothing else
Nofziger made nine moves all season and one of them was the whole year. Ryan Fitzpatrick arrived in week 9 and stayed to week 16, scoring 166 points at 21 a start, and the archive says he was worth starting in all eight of those weeks. Those nine adds returned 408 net points, 45 an add, the best rate in the league. A man sitting 2-4 and thirteenth at the week 6 post made the bracket on the back of it and then lost to Maciuba 94.4 to 93.7. Croushore did the same job with four adds: Mitchell Trubisky from week 7, 16 a start across ten starts, 88 percent of everything he owned reaching his lineup, and not one point scored by anybody he released. He finished sixteenth of sixteen in points for and still went 6-7.
Calderon made 40 adds and netted five points for the trouble, which is the year's great monument to activity. He also held Robby Anderson for three weeks without starting him once, and Dearolf then started him eleven times at nine a game, a drop that cost 46 points. Bailey worked the wire 38 times, nine of those gone again inside the same week, and ended 175 points in the red, last in the league, with the men he let go scoring 727 for other people. The one that counted was the 49ers defense in week 3, started twelve times for 120 points, and he won the title with it while the rest of his churn went nowhere.
The drops were where this league bled. Bench got 58 of the 270 points he owned into his lineup, 22 percent and the worst share anywhere, and he let Jared Cook go after week 7 having started him four times at four a game, after which Dang started him seven times at 12 a game. That one release cost 52 points. MacDougall released A.J. Brown after three weeks without ever starting him, handed Dearolf the best rate of any claim in the league who was not a quarterback, and reached the final regardless. Hartnett found Daniel Jones in week 4 and owned 167 points of him, of which 65 reached the lineup, so the best week of his wire year mostly happened on his bench.
Claiming and Letting Go
- Adds — Number of waiver pickups
- Churn — Number of pickups dropped in < 1 week
- Owned Points — Total points scored while owned
- Started Points — Share of owned points in their starting lineups
- Released Points — Total points scored by players after release
| Nofziger | 9 | 486.1 | 295.7 61% | 78.1 | +408.0 | +45.3 | |
| Kane | 19 | 465.6 | 322.0 69% | 211.3 | +254.3 | +13.4 | |
| Hartnett | 7 | 296.7 | 161.0 54% | 52.0 | +244.7 | +35.0 | |
| Croushore | 4 | 216.6 | 191.1 88% | 0.0 | +216.6 | +54.2 | |
| Noell | 9 | 221.6 | 165.3 75% | 63.0 | +158.6 | +17.6 | |
| Nichols | 18 | 2 | 469.3 | 237.2 51% | 349.2 | +120.1 | +6.7 |
| Rademaker | 15 | 1 | 367.1 | 304.9 83% | 260.6 | +106.5 | +7.1 |
| Bench | 6 | 270.3 | 58.7 22% | 175.3 | +95.0 | +15.8 | |
| Dearolf | 21 | 1 | 663.7 | 391.9 59% | 573.4 | +90.3 | +4.3 |
| Dorenbusch | 14 | 3 | 363.3 | 198.6 55% | 288.2 | +75.1 | +5.4 |
| Hynes | 18 | 4 | 481.4 | 243.3 51% | 451.2 | +30.2 | +1.7 |
| Calderon | 40 | 2 | 603.8 | 360.3 60% | 598.8 | +5.0 | +0.1 |
| Maciuba | 8 | 1 | 254.6 | 210.4 83% | 281.8 | -27.2 | -3.4 |
| MacDougall | 11 | 293.8 | 195.3 66% | 387.8 | -94.0 | -8.5 | |
| Dang | 23 | 2 | 362.8 | 202.3 56% | 487.2 | -124.4 | -5.4 |
| Bailey | 38 | 9 | 552.6 | 291.3 53% | 727.3 | -174.7 | -4.6 |
Who Got There First
| Player | Points | Chain | Big weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick QB | 166.1 | Nofziger 9–16, 166.1 held all year | 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 |
| 49ers D/ST DST | 127.0 | Dearolf 2–2, 7.0 → Bailey 3–16, 128.0 | 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12 |
| Josh Lambo K | 117.0 | Noell 1–16, 117.0 held all year | 4, 7, 8 |
| Joey Slye K | 108.0 | Hynes 2–11, 70.0 → Rademaker 12–16, 38.0 | 2, 4, 6 |
| Zane Gonzalez K | 102.0 | Nofziger 3–16, 103.0 held all year | 5 |
| Kyle Allen QB | 95.3 | Maciuba 7–16, 110.5 held all year | 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 |
| Jets D/ST DST | 88.0 | Rademaker 1–2, 21.0 → MacDougall 6–6, 0.0 → Bailey 7–8, 3.0 → Hynes 9–9, 6.0 → Dearolf 10–16, 68.0 | 1, 10, 12, 16 |
| Chris Boswell K | 87.0 | MacDougall 4–16, 99.0 held all year | 5, 9 |
| Brandon McManus K | 77.0 | Dearolf 6–16, 77.0 held all year | 6, 11, 13 |
| Jason Myers K | 75.0 | Hynes 1–1, 3.0 → Bailey 3–5, 18.0 → Nichols 7–8, 21.0 → Maciuba 10–10, 11.0 → Kane 13–16, 34.0 | 8, 13 |
The Trades
The Chippewa Champions League made one trade in 2019 and had it done by week 2. As far as the rosters show, two men went from Bailey to Noell and one came back. Everybody else in a sixteen-team league stuck to the waiver wire, Calderon to the tune of 40 adds and five net points. Noell got the better of the swap and still finished 4-9 as the fifteenth seed. Bailey came out behind on it and won his second title anyway, with a 49ers defense he claimed off waivers in week 3.
Figures below are ppg as a starter, for the managers trading, with the number of starts in parens. T.Y. Hilton reads 15.5(2) → 6.1(6): Noell started him 2 times for 15.5, Bailey 6 times for 6.1 after the trade. Green is as good or better after, red a decline.
Week 2 Bailey and Noell Noell wins the deal, Bailey the league
Bailey received
- T.Y. Hilton WR 15.5(2) → 6.1(6)
Noell received
- Philip Rivers QB — → 14.6(7)
- T.J. Hockenson TE — → 2.9(10)
The year's only trade moved a quarterback and a tight end from the eventual champion to the fifteenth seed, who got much the better of it. Bailey had wrung five points out of that receiver spot before the deal, then started Hilton just six times for 37 points while Rivers alone gave Noell 102 points. Allison and Stills covered the loss at a cost of 12 points, and Noell went 4-9 anyway.
Start and Sit
Bailey and Hynes had, near enough, the same roster. Across the thirteen regular season weeks Bailey had 1365 points available to him and Hynes had 1361, the two richest collections of players in the league. Bailey started 1241 of his, led all sixteen teams in scoring and won the thing, his second title after 2014. Hynes started 1064, finished ninth and watched the bracket from home.
That is 297 points left on the Hynes bench, 23 a week, comfortably the worst rate in the league. Nichols was next at 19 and nobody else was above 17. One week Hynes lost 58 points in a single sitting, a figure that stands clear of Calderon's 45 and reads less like a wrong guess than a lineup nobody opened. His week 5 call was not the problem: Julio Jones scored 4 and Will Fuller scored 40, and the 36 points that cost him were the right decision on every piece of evidence available that Sunday morning. The volume is what buried him. He was fifth in the league in points for and missed the last bracket place by one game, behind Kane and Nofziger. Some of that was the schedule, since he lost all three of his games decided by under ten points, but no amount of weather accounts for 23 points a week going unused.
Noell technically managed his lineup better than anybody at 91.2%, though he was squeezing that out of 1010 available points, the second-thinnest roster in the league, and it bought him 4-9. Bailey's 90.9% of a far bigger pile is the more useful kind of good. At the other end of the same joke, Calderon left 192 points on his bench, scored the thirteenth-most points of any team and still walked off with the 2 seed by going 4-0 in tight games. And once the regular season had finished with him, Rademaker started Derrius Guice in week 15 for 0.0 with Kenyan Drake and his 39 points sitting on the bench, then started Guice again in week 16 for another 0.0 while Drake put up 30.
Optimal vs Actual Lineups
| # | Manager | Optimal | Started | Loss | Per week | Optimality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noell | 1010.1 | 921.5 | 88.6 | 6.8 | 91.2% |
| 2 | Bailey | 1364.7 | 1240.7 | 124.0 | 9.5 | 90.9% |
| 3 | Dang | 1286.8 | 1156.8 | 130.0 | 10.0 | 89.9% |
| 4 | Kane | 1109.9 | 991.4 | 118.5 | 9.1 | 89.3% |
| 5 | Maciuba | 1336.7 | 1179.7 | 157.0 | 12.1 | 88.3% |
| 6 | Nofziger | 1266.8 | 1105.7 | 161.1 | 12.4 | 87.3% |
| 7 | Dorenbusch | 1147.8 | 977.4 | 170.4 | 13.1 | 85.2% |
| 8 | Croushore | 1009.4 | 859.0 | 150.4 | 11.6 | 85.1% |
| 9 | Hartnett | 1206.7 | 1025.6 | 181.1 | 13.9 | 85.0% |
| 10 | Dearolf | 1178.0 | 995.7 | 182.3 | 14.0 | 84.5% |
| 11 | Bench | 1209.8 | 1018.4 | 191.4 | 14.7 | 84.2% |
| 12 | Calderon | 1162.4 | 970.3 | 192.1 | 14.8 | 83.5% |
| 13 | MacDougall | 1187.5 | 982.4 | 205.1 | 15.8 | 82.7% |
| 14 | Rademaker | 1132.8 | 912.7 | 220.1 | 16.9 | 80.6% |
| 15 | Nichols | 1241.5 | 999.9 | 241.6 | 18.6 | 80.5% |
| 16 | Hynes | 1360.8 | 1063.6 | 297.2 | 22.9 | 78.2% |
The Worst Single Calls
| Week | Manager | Started | Sat | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rademaker | Derrius Guice 0.0 | Kenyan Drake 38.6 | 38.6 |
| 5 | Hynes | Julio Jones 4.2 | Will Fuller V 39.7 | 35.5 |
| 10 | Dearolf | Robby Anderson 1.1 | Christian Kirk 31.8 | 30.7 |
| 16 | Rademaker | Derrius Guice 0.0 | Kenyan Drake 30.4 | 30.4 |
| 8 | Maciuba | Marvin Jones Jr. 2.2 | Mike Evans 31.8 | 29.6 |
| 7 | Nofziger | David Montgomery -0.1 | Latavius Murray 27.0 | 27.1 |
| 16 | Bench | Darius Slayton 0.0 | Tyler Boyd 24.8 | 24.8 |
| 4 | Calderon | Amari Cooper 4.8 | Chris Godwin 29.2 | 24.4 |
The Awards
Best Drafter
MacDougall
MacDougall drafted better than anybody and still scored only the eleventh-most points in the league, then made up for it by putting 119 points on the top seed in the semifinal.
Best Lineup Setter
Noell
Noell started almost every point he owned, and the pity is that the worst draft board in the league left him owning so few of them.
Best Pickup Artist
Nofziger
Having let the robot make all fifteen of his draft picks, Nofziger did his own choosing on the waiver wire and chose well enough to haul a 2-4 team into the bracket.
Best Trader
Noell
Noell pried two men off Bailey's roster before week 2 was done, and since nobody else traded all year, he is the one manager who beat the champion at the table.
Team by Team
Maciuba Maciuba's one seed is the honest one
Maciuba's 10-3 is the rare record at the top of this table that needs no asterisk. He scored 1180 points, second in the league, and his all-play of 139-56 was worth 9.3 wins, so the schedule added almost nothing. He got there with only eight adds and a draft that kept paying, with the Patriots defense at 173 returning 224 points. The 2015 champion simply ran into a MacDougall who picked the semifinal to score 119.
Dang Defending champ earns his wins and draws Bailey
Dang's 9-4 was almost exactly what his team deserved, 8.8 wins on the all-play, and he got there while losing both of his games decided by under ten points. Christian McCaffrey at third overall gave him 339 points, which is a top-three pick doing precisely its job. He also fixed a lineup spot that had produced 23 points from Delanie Walker and Kerryon Johnson by claiming Jared Cook in week 8. The defending champion's reward for an honest season was a week 14 date with the best team in the league.
Bailey Best team in the league, underpaid until December
The champion's year is told at length above, so this entry only has to say where his missing wins went. He was 2-1 in games decided by under ten points, which puts the whole gap between 9.7 wins deserved and eight collected on the schedule. It started in week 1, when Noell put up 111 points, the best losing score of the season, and Bailey needed 120 to get past him.
Bench Bench gets outscored and goes 8-5 anyway
Bench gave up 1065 points and scored 1018, and the schedule still arranged an 8-5 record and a five seed for a team whose all-play of 96-99 said 6.4 wins. Deshaun Watson did most of the honest work with 320 points, mostly in Bench's lineup, and Darren Waller at 223 returned 120. The wire he left almost untouched: six adds found 59 points, 5% of his scoring and the lowest share in the league. MacDougall ended the flattery in week 14, 105 to 88.
MacDougall MacDougall muddles to 8-5, then mauls the one seed
MacDougall scored the eleventh-most points in the league, deserved 6.1 wins, and got eight by going 3-1 in games decided by under ten points. Then he played the best fortnight of anybody but the champion, 105 points to remove Bench and 119 to remove Maciuba. The 205 points he left on his bench across the season were the fourth-most in the league, and that habit is the one that cost him the final. It was the first of three finals he would lose, with 2022 and 2023 still to come.
Calderon Luckiest man in the league cashes four coin flips
Calderon scored the thirteenth-most points in the league, and his all-play record was worth 5.7 wins. He went 8-5 and took the two seed anyway, because all four of his games decided by under ten points went his way while 1089 points were scored against him. Derrick Henry at 24 was a sound pick for 238 points and the one part of the year that holds up without the dice. He did win a bracket game, 80 to 65 over Kane, before Bailey arrived to settle the account.
Nofziger Nofziger gets the record his team earned
Take the schedule out and Nofziger lands almost exactly where he finished, 7.3 wins deserved against seven collected, on the fourth-most points in the league. The robot that made all fifteen of his picks did find one thing, the Steelers defense at 204 for 174 points. He was 4-6 at the week 10 post and 7-6 three weeks later, and that closing run belongs to Ryan Fitzpatrick, whom nobody drafted and Nofziger went and got.
Kane Kane coaxes a bracket berth out of the robot's roster
The robot made all fifteen of Kane's picks, so the season he can claim is the one that came after, and it was a good one. His 19 adds found 322 points, 27% of his scoring, and only Noell left fewer points on the bench than his 119. He was 4-6 and fourteenth at the week 10 post and reached 7-6, a record a little kinder than the 6.6 wins his all-play earned. Calderon beat him 80 to 65 in week 14, and 65 points was the lowest score anybody put up in the bracket.
Hynes Hynes half unlucky, half asleep at the lineup
A man who left 297 points on his bench across the season lost the closest game of it, week 4 against Croushore, by 0.4 points. He went 0-3 in games decided by under ten and finished 6-7 on a team the all-play valued at 7.1 wins, so the schedule carries some of the blame and the lineup card carries more. Aaron Jones at 42 returned 252 points, which clears the draft of any part in it.
Dorenbusch Dorenbusch fades back to what he was
Dorenbusch sat 6-4 and fifth at the week 10 post and did not win again, finishing 6-7 and eleventh. The fade was the record catching up with the team, since the twelfth-best scoring side in the league had an all-play worth 5.8 wins and a 2-2 record in close games that offers no excuse in either direction. His best pick was Harrison Butker at 114 for 154 points, and a season whose finest draft decision is a kicker was never built to last.
Croushore Croushore cashes close calls for a flattering 6-7
The lowest-scoring team in the league deserved 4.7 wins and took six, most of it from a 5-1 record in games decided by under ten points. The narrowest of those escapes was week 4, a win over Hynes by 0.4 points. The one close game he lost came in week 6, when he scored 41 and Noell beat him with 42, the cheapest win anybody managed all year. He was fifth at the week 3 post and slid to eleventh, which is still higher than 859 points has any right to finish.
Nichols Nichols benches his bracket push
Nichols climbed from 0-3 and last at the week 3 post to 5-5 and ninth by week 10, then did not win again. The record was close to fair, five wins against 5.5 deserved and 0-2 in close games, which leaves the lineup to answer for the rest: 242 points left on the bench, second only to Hynes. Kenny Golladay at 46 for 176 points headed a roster that was eighth in scoring and good enough for more. A year later he won the title with CMC off the Trade Block.
Dearolf Dearolf digs up the most and dumps the champion's defense
Dearolf found 392 points on the wire, the most in the league and 31% of his scoring, with Robby Anderson and A.J. Brown both arriving off other men's cut piles. The one he threw back was the 49ers defense, which cost him 25 points against the Titans and Jets he used instead and went on to anchor Bailey's title. His all-play was worth six wins against the five he got, and a draft that opened with David Johnson accounts for the rest of the damage. He won the 2022 title under the same team name.
Hartnett Hartnett draws the worst Sundays in the league
Hartnett outscored Bench, who went 8-5, and finished 4-9 with 5.8 wins deserved, because all four of his games decided by under ten points went the other way. Dalvin Cook at 26 returned 239 points, so the draft held up its end. What he can own is a quiet autumn of seven adds for 161 points and 181 points left on the bench, from a man who sat 2-4 at the week 6 post and needed to be busier.
Noell Noell wins the trade and little else
Noell's 4-9 was close to what the team was worth, 4.7 wins on the all-play from the fourteenth-most points in the league. He had worked his way from 0-3 to 3-3 and ninth by the week 6 post, then won once more all season, with a 2-4 record in close games doing some of the damage. DJ Chark at 185 for 149 points and nine adds that found 296 points were real work, spent on a roster that simply did not have enough in it.
Rademaker Rademaker gets buried and helps with the shovel
Rademaker had more points scored against him than anybody, 1100, and opened 0-6, so the schedule did lean on a team whose all-play said 4.7 wins and whose record said three. The team was bad enough on its own terms, fifteenth in points with 220 points left on the bench, the third-most in the league. Josh Allen at 176 for 288 points was the decision that went right, and the Derrius Guice fortnight recorded elsewhere on this page was the last to go wrong. He did reach the 2024 final, losing it to Kane.