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2023
Hartnett Nets Net Profit From Stick Stock - MacDougall Left Gored, Done
Seventh in week ten and never once on the trade market, the 3 seed knocks out Maciuba and a fortunate Dang to reach the final
Hartnett built this title in August and spent the rest of the year refusing to be talked out of it. He did not make a single trade all season. CeeDee Lamb came with his first pick and started all sixteen weeks, but the real work happened further down the board. Justin Herbert, Brian Robinson Jr. and David Njoku all came from the middle of the draft and all turned into real points. He did spend every dollar of his waiver budget. Even so, only 14% of his points came from men he did not draft, and the best of them was a Vikings defense nobody else had bothered to pick. The waiver wire also made a fool of him once. He drafted Chuba Hubbard, got nothing out of him and cut him, and somebody else collected 163 points. D'Onta Foreman went out the same door.
None of that looked clever in week ten, when he was 5-5 and sitting seventh. The schedule neither helped nor hurt him. His all-play record was worth eight wins, he finished with eight, and that was enough for the 3 seed. The bracket is where sitting on his hands paid off. He got past Maciuba first and then drew Dang, a 12-2 team that had won nearly every close game it played and had really played like a nine-win side. Hartnett sent him home, just as he had when he beat Dang for the 2016 title. MacDougall, fresh from dumping out Rademaker, was waiting in the final.
The Final
MacDougall left 42 points on his bench in a title game, and this paper cannot let that pass. DJ Moore scored 26 points there while A.J. Brown started and managed seven. Jaylen Warren sat on 18 points as Derrick Henry scraped together four from the flex. Tyrod Taylor also outscored the starting Gardner Minshew from the bench. None of it would have saved him, because his best possible lineup comes to 118 points and still loses. Hartnett won this at the top of his roster. CeeDee Lamb scored 34 points, and James Conner added 26 from the flex. Hartnett misplaced seven points of his own by starting Michael Pittman Jr. over Brandin Cooks, and it cost him nothing.
What They Started in the Final
Hartnett 123.6
| QB | Easton Stick | 11.9 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | 16.7 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 33.7 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | 7.1 |
| TE | David Njoku | 14.4 |
| FLEX | James Conner | 25.8 |
| DST | Jets D/ST | 9.0 |
| K | Nick Folk | 5.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Brandin Cooks | 14.5 | |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 9.6 | |
| Nick Mullens | 9.0 | |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4.9 | |
| Noah Brown | 1.3 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 131.0, so 7.4 points sat in the wrong places.
MacDougall 76.0
| QB | Gardner Minshew | 13.1 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 6.6 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | 23.9 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | 7.3 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
| FLEX | Derrick Henry | 4.2 |
| DST | Titans D/ST | 1.0 |
| K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| DJ Moore | 26.4 | |
| Tyrod Taylor | 18.4 | |
| Jaylen Warren | 17.8 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11.0 | |
| Tyler Boyd | 3.9 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 118.4, so 42.4 points sat in the wrong places.
The Playoffs
Bailey scores 1342 points, fourth-most in the league, and watches the bracket from the couch. His all-play record of 130-80 is worth nine wins. He collects seven after losing all four of his games decided by under ten points, and the division record that sets the seeds leaves him ninth. Nichols goes out with him as the 10 seed. Noell and Bench get in on the same 7-7 from 13th and 11th in points, and neither lasts a week. Dang flattens Noell 113 to 60, and Rademaker sends Bench home 92 to 76. Croushore scores the seventh-most points and loses all five of his close games, which is how 1264 points turns into 6-8.
The seeding does not make it past the semifinals and has no business doing so. MacDougall is a 5 seed only on paper, with the second-most points in the league and a 143-67 all-play record. His 100 to 91 win over Hynes and his 100 to 83 mugging of Rademaker are less upset than correction. Hynes arrives with a 105-105 all-play record and spent pick 8 on Nick Chubb, who returned 21 points all year. Rademaker is the real casualty as the league's top scorer and perfect in close games, but his 83 points on the day are his own work. No loser in this bracket can blame an opponent's big Sunday.
The worst lineup calls of December all happen outside the bracket, which spares the playoffs and embarrasses everybody else. Kane starts Kenny Pickett at quarterback for zero points in week 17 with Justin Fields and 25 points on his bench. It would be a one-off if he had not done exactly the same thing in week 14. Dorenbusch starts Ja'Marr Chase for zero in week 16 while DJ Chark Jr. scores 25 on the bench. The defending champion Dearolf finishes 4-10 and 14th in points, and nobody gets scored on more than he does. MacDougall, meanwhile, adds a third lost final to the ones he dropped to Bailey in 2019 and Dearolf in 2022.
The Bracket
Seeds on the left of each pairing. Every line reads left to right, so a man's whole run is the path back from wherever he stopped.
Where They Stood
League rank after every week of the regular season -
record, then points scored.
Green is a manager who made the playoffs
Red is one who finished
inside the top 8 but missed the playoffs
because the league seeds on record within a division rather than league rank.
The Regular Season
All-play is the record a team would have had against every other team every week rather than against the one the schedule gave it. Deserved is that all-play win rate put back over the games actually played, so Dang's 155–55 is a .738 rate across fourteen games and 10.3 wins earned. Luck is wins minus deserved: a team on +3 collected three more than its scoring earned, and a team on −3 was owed three it never got.
| 1 | Rademaker Fidel Cashflow | 1389.0 | 1211.8 | 146-64 | 12-2 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Dang Christian the RB | 1353.1 | 1153.3 | 137-73 | 12-2 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | MacDougall Convinced Lombardi | 1387.7 | 1314.6 | 143-67 | 8-6 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Maciuba Cairlos Santanos | 1328.1 | 1147.2 | 122-88 | 8-6 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Hartnett Win One For The CLTer | 1310.2 | 1223.3 | 124-84 | 8-6 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Hynes Husbandry 101 | 1214.4 | 1100.1 | 105-105 | 8-6 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Bailey I'm Leotarded | 1341.6 | 1217.1 | 130-80 | 7-7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Nichols Koopa Troopas | 1193.4 | 1208.2 | 96-114 | 7-7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Bench _ The Brutes | 1187.2 | 1233.0 | 103-106 | 7-7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | Noell Team Noell | 1168.5 | 1247.7 | 91-118 | 7-7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | Croushore The Real Chris | 1263.8 | 1169.9 | 107-103 | 6-8 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 11 | 7 |
| 12 | Dorenbusch The Muff Diving Snorkel Squad | 1178.4 | 1237.4 | 90-120 | 6-8 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 12 | 2 |
| 13 | Nofziger Watsons massage parlor | 1200.7 | 1254.8 | 105-105 | 5-9 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Dearolf The REAL Chris | 1082.5 | 1343.9 | 72-137 | 4-10 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Kane Steak Sauce | 1012.4 | 1159.4 | 53-156 | 4-10 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 15 | 15 |
| 16 | Calderon Curse n Turf | 947.5 | 1336.8 | 52-156 | 3-11 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 16 | 1 |
The Draft
MacDougall has the best draft of 2023, and a robot made ten of his fourteen picks. Those selections scored 2363 points, the most in the league, with four hits and no busts, so the software kept being right instead of getting lucky once. Its best find was Sam LaPorta at 205, who returned 136 points more than that slot usually does. Maciuba is second on 2277 points, also without a bust, carried by Dak Prescott at 80. Hartnett built his title on CeeDee Lamb at 14. Lamb returned 131 points more than the slot, which makes him that rare thing, an early pick that was actually shrewd.
Calderon's draft is the worst in the league by a distance, 587 points short of what his slots usually return. Aaron Rodgers at 97 finished more than four sigma below his slot, but he was a defensible gamble right up until his Achilles went in the opener. Cam Akers at 65 was simply a bad read on a back who lost his job in September. Calderon also found Jared Goff at 161, banked 266 points from him and started him twice, which is a lineup crime committed well after August. Hynes has no hits at all. Nick Chubb at 8 gave him 21 points before the knee went, and that is pure misfortune.
The other robots did worse. Nofziger and Croushore let the software make all fourteen picks, and those drafts finished 323 and 266 points short of their slots. Nofziger's machine did find Kyren Williams at 204, then threw it away on Deshaun Watson at 76. Bench handed over thirteen picks and got Joe Burrow at 42, 114 points short of the slot. Rademaker went 12-2 as the 1 seed with a draft 197 points short of its slots, and Daniel Jones at 101 was the worst of his five busts. His season came from somewhere other than draft night.
What Each Draft Was Worth
- Picked — Total points scored by all draft picks
- Kept — Total points scored while he still owned them, bench included
- Utilized — Share of everything they scored that the manager actually started
- Elsewhere — What his picks went on to score off his roster, by trade or by drop
- Best value — His best single pick, in points above what that draft slot has historically returned, and how unusual that was
VOR − E[VOR | pick] σ = (VOR − E[VOR | pick]) / SD[VOR | pick]
| Best value | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacDougall | 2363.2 | 1798.6 | 63% | 564.6 | 10 | Sam LaPorta 205, +136.3 (2.39σ) |
| Maciuba | 2277.4 | 1950.6 | 65% | 326.8 | Dak Prescott 80, +108.3 (1.97σ) | |
| Hartnett | 2205.3 | 1715.7 | 64% | 489.6 | CeeDee Lamb 14, +131.3 (1.87σ) | |
| Dang | 2183.6 | 1424.0 | 48% | 759.6 | 7 | Christian McCaffrey 4, +132.5 (1.8σ) |
| Nichols | 2092.7 | 1471.4 | 56% | 621.3 | Raheem Mostert 134, +114.9 (1.98σ) | |
| Kane | 2046.7 | 1774.5 | 49% | 272.2 | Evan Engram 82, +80.8 (1.48σ) | |
| Bailey | 2019.6 | 1148.7 | 50% | 870.9 | 13 | Tyreek Hill 9, +109.7 (1.51σ) |
| Bench | 1988.8 | 1692.1 | 63% | 296.7 | 13 | De'Von Achane 215, +59.2 (1.02σ) |
| Noell | 1945.0 | 1463.6 | 65% | 481.4 | 5 | Josh Allen 30, +118.9 (1.84σ) |
| Dearolf | 1861.9 | 1118.7 | 50% | 743.2 | Jordan Love 203, +116.1 (2.06σ) | |
| Dorenbusch | 1797.4 | 1542.9 | 64% | 254.5 | 5 | Jalen Hurts 31, +84.7 (1.34σ) |
| Hynes | 1755.5 | 1251.5 | 55% | 504.0 | Jordan Addison 104, +50.6 (0.92σ) | |
| Rademaker | 1735.1 | 1268.3 | 61% | 466.8 | Nico Collins 133, +95.0 (1.63σ) | |
| Nofziger | 1703.2 | 1316.4 | 54% | 386.8 | 14 | Kyren Williams 204, +118.1 (2.08σ) |
| Croushore | 1692.7 | 1473.9 | 71% | 218.8 | 14 | Mike Evans 58, +88.7 (1.55σ) |
| Calderon | 1490.3 | 952.6 | 40% | 537.7 | 3 | Jared Goff 161, +76.9 (1.34σ) |
Hits and Busts
- Value — What the whole draft was worth against the slots it cost, summed over every pick
- Hits and busts — Picks that landed a standard deviation either side of what their slot usually returns
| Hits | Busts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MacDougall | +432.8 | Sam LaPorta 205, 2.39σ DJ Moore 52, 1.45σ Browns D/ST 141, 1.38σ Rachaad White 45, 1.01σ | — |
| Maciuba | +286.0 | Dak Prescott 80, 1.97σ Cairo Santos 209, 1.13σ T.J. Hockenson 49, 1.1σ | — |
| Hartnett | +181.8 | CeeDee Lamb 14, 1.87σ David Njoku 83, 1.24σ Jets D/ST 142, 1.24σ | Chase Claypool 179, -1.9σ Marquez Valdes-Scantling 147, -1.31σ |
| Dang | +160.0 | Christian McCaffrey 4, 1.8σ C.J. Stroud 189, 1.24σ | Mike Williams 61, -1.94σ Dameon Pierce 36, -1.82σ Michael Thomas 100, -1.15σ |
| Nichols | +51.4 | Raheem Mostert 134, 1.98σ | Cooper Kupp 6, -1.01σ |
| Bailey | +8.8 | Tyreek Hill 9, 1.51σ Lamar Jackson 41, 1.19σ Rashee Rice 201, 1.17σ | Skyy Moore 105, -1.67σ Miles Sanders 56, -1.66σ Tee Higgins 24, -1.1σ |
| Bench | +7.1 | De'Von Achane 215, 1.02σ | Joe Burrow 42, -1.95σ Jamaal Williams 119, -1.62σ Isaiah Hodgins 202, -1.06σ |
| Kane | +4.0 | Evan Engram 82, 1.48σ Cameron Dicker 210, 1.04σ | Kenny Pickett 146, -1.83σ |
| Noell | -20.0 | Josh Allen 30, 1.84σ Bills D/ST 126, 1.12σ | Van Jefferson 195, -1.47σ Joshua Kelley 222, -1.0σ |
| Rademaker | -196.7 | Nico Collins 133, 1.63σ Ravens D/ST 156, 1.59σ Brandon Aiyuk 69, 1.21σ | Daniel Jones 101, -3.07σ Rashaad Penny 124, -2.42σ Terrace Marshall Jr. 220, -1.41σ Allen Lazard 165, -1.33σ Jelani Woods 188, -1.18σ |
| Dorenbusch | -208.8 | Jalen Hurts 31, 1.34σ | Anthony Richardson 130, -2.48σ Parris Campbell 159, -1.75σ JuJu Smith-Schuster 95, -1.57σ Hunter Renfrow 191, -1.38σ |
| Dearolf | -240.2 | Jordan Love 203, 2.06σ Breece Hall 54, 1.45σ | J.K. Dobbins 75, -2.47σ Dalvin Cook 86, -2.11σ Tank Bigsby 182, -1.98σ Rashod Bateman 139, -1.14σ Zay Jones 171, -1.08σ |
| Croushore | -265.7 | Mike Evans 58, 1.55σ George Kittle 71, 1.33σ | Jeff Wilson Jr. 122, -1.88σ Russell Gage 218, -1.8σ Kirk Cousins 90, -1.46σ Graham Gano 154, -1.09σ Darnell Mooney 135, -1.08σ |
| Nofziger | -323.2 | Kyren Williams 204, 2.08σ Cowboys D/ST 140, 1.49σ Jayden Reed 181, 1.2σ Adam Thielen 149, 1.0σ | Deshaun Watson 76, -2.56σ Treylon Burks 85, -1.9σ Elijah Mitchell 172, -1.64σ Christian Watson 44, -1.37σ Greg Dulcich 117, -1.36σ |
| Hynes | -359.1 | — | Nick Chubb 8, -2.76σ Damien Harris 153, -2.02σ Kadarius Toney 136, -1.5σ Kyler Murray 185, -1.18σ |
| Calderon | -587.4 | Jared Goff 161, 1.34σ | Aaron Rodgers 97, -4.05σ Cam Akers 65, -2.07σ Donovan Peoples-Jones 224, -1.34σ Jerick McKinnon 128, -1.17σ Aaron Jones 33, -1.1σ Rhamondre Stevenson 32, -1.01σ |
The Waiver Wire
Nofziger made only seven adds on 85% of his budget, and nobody in the league got more out of each one, at a net 64 points an add. Bailey had Sam Howell on his week one roster and cut him after a 15-point week. Nofziger picked Howell up in week 5 and started him nine times at 20 points a start, then found Jake Browning in week 13 for 19 a start over four more. Hynes did it with volume and made it pay. He made 22 adds on 98% of his budget for the biggest net total in the league, 26 points an add, built on Jerome Ford from week 2 and on Brandon Aubrey, the kicker Bailey let go, from week 8.
Bailey spent 100% of his budget and held the best haul of undrafted men anybody had. That haul included Puka Nacua from week 2 at 15 points a start over 13 starts and Rashee Rice at 13 a start. The trouble was the exit. The men he cut scored more for other people than his pickups scored while he had them, which left him at minus one point an add. Howell, Aubrey, Tee Higgins and the Dolphins D/ST all went out his door, and Rademaker grabbed those Dolphins in week 2 and started them nine times at 13 a start. Nichols was worse still, burning 93% of his budget on 28 adds for minus two points an add. Dearolf spent every cent on 28 adds and cleared under two.
Calderon claimed Brock Purdy in week 2 and kept him all season at 18 points a start over 12 starts. By total, that was the best claim of the year, and Curse n Turf still finished last in points. Hartnett, the champion, spent 100% of his budget for seven points an add, and the men he dropped scored 404 points elsewhere. He won the title anyway. MacDougall, the man he beat in the final, let only 31% of what his pickups scored reach his lineup, and most of Jayden Reed's 131 points came while Reed sat on his bench.
Claiming and Letting Go
- Adds — Number of waiver pickups
- Churn — Number of pickups dropped in < 1 week
- Owned Points — Total points scored while owned
- Started Points — Share of owned points in their starting lineups
- Released Points — Total points scored by players after release
| Hynes | 22 | 5 | 892.2 | 437.3 49% | 317.7 | +574.5 | +26.1 | 98% |
| Nofziger | 7 | 592.8 | 464.5 78% | 142.9 | +449.9 | +64.3 | 85% | |
| Rademaker | 17 | 635.7 | 372.7 59% | 290.1 | +345.6 | +20.3 | 80% | |
| Calderon | 31 | 4 | 883.9 | 587.2 66% | 539.8 | +344.1 | +11.1 | 76% |
| Dorenbusch | 14 | 490.2 | 255.9 52% | 182.7 | +307.5 | +22.0 | 67% | |
| Dang | 17 | 2 | 556.2 | 352.2 63% | 372.0 | +184.2 | +10.8 | 85% |
| Maciuba | 11 | 2 | 254.2 | 154.1 61% | 101.0 | +153.2 | +13.9 | 86% |
| Hartnett | 15 | 503.5 | 236.6 47% | 404.4 | +99.1 | +6.6 | 100% | |
| MacDougall | 14 | 534.9 | 166.1 31% | 456.7 | +78.2 | +5.6 | 68% | |
| Croushore | 9 | 358.3 | 300.9 84% | 288.9 | +69.4 | +7.7 | 60% | |
| Noell | 16 | 283.8 | 133.8 47% | 222.8 | +61.0 | +3.8 | 90% | |
| Bench | 9 | 300.6 | 163.4 54% | 249.8 | +50.8 | +5.6 | 81% | |
| Dearolf | 28 | 5 | 734.1 | 272.7 37% | 685.4 | +48.7 | +1.7 | 100% |
| Kane | 2 | 138.0 | 138.0 100% | 116.0 | +22.0 | +11.0 | 50% | |
| Bailey | 21 | 1233.8 | 770.9 62% | 1253.8 | -20.0 | -1.0 | 100% | |
| Nichols | 28 | 4 | 529.7 | 280.6 53% | 592.8 | -63.1 | -2.3 | 93% |
Who Got There First
| Player | Points | Chain | Big weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy QB | 214.4 | Calderon 2–17, 276.4 held all year | 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17 |
| Puka Nacua WR | 190.4 | Bailey 2–17, 217.0 held all year | 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 13, 16, 17 |
| Sam Howell QB | 178.5 | Bailey 1–1, 15.1 → Nofziger 5–17, 191.0 | 1, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 |
| Brandon Aubrey K | 171.0 | Bailey 1–6, 65.0 → Hynes 8–17, 106.0 | 2, 4, 8, 13, 14 |
| Dustin Hopkins K | 130.0 | Rademaker 1–4, 37.0 → Bailey 7–16, 93.0 | 1, 3, 7, 10 |
| Jerome Ford RB | 120.9 | Hynes 2–17, 183.4 held all year | 2, 3, 7, 13, 17 |
| Vikings D/ST DST | 94.0 | Croushore 1–2, 5.0 → Hartnett 4–17, 110.0 | 4, 6, 14 |
| Texans D/ST DST | 83.0 | Maciuba 4–8, 25.0 → Calderon 9–9, 1.0 → Maciuba 13–17, 57.0 | 13, 15, 17 |
| Matt Prater K | 82.0 | Kane 5–17, 82.0 held all year | 10, 15 |
| Jake Browning QB | 76.3 | Nofziger 13–17, 102.3 held all year | 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 |
The Trades
Four trades went through in 2023, and none of them reached the title game. Hartnett won the championship without making one, and MacDougall got to the final without one either. Rademaker and Nichols dealt twice each, while Dang, Dearolf, Hynes and Nofziger made one trade apiece. The biggest was the week 5 deal between the two teams that finished 12-2, and both of them lost in the semifinals. The worst belonged to Nichols, who sold Cooper Kupp from a 6-4 start in week 10 and finished outside the bracket at 7-7.
Figures below are ppg as a starter, for the managers trading, with the number of starts in parens. Jaylen Waddle reads 11.4(8) → 11.9(6): Dearolf started him 8 times for 11.4, Hynes 6 times for 11.9 after the trade. Green is as good or better after, red a decline.
Week 5 Dang and Rademaker Both front-runners get what they need
Dang received
- Ravens D/ST DST 14.5(2) → 10.1(10)
- Nico Collins WR 18.4(2) → 11.9(10)
- Baker Mayfield QB — → 16.9(2)
Rademaker received
- C.J. Stroud QB — → 17.9(10)
- Tutu Atwell WR 10.6(3) → 7.9(1)
The two teams that finished 12-2 did their shopping with each other, and both kept winning. Collins was a genuine upgrade for Dang, whose receivers in that spot had managed 32 points, while McLaurin and Keenan Allen left Rademaker 31 points short of what Collins went on to score. Stroud answered with 179 points of his own for Rademaker, who still finished first in the league in points.
Week 10 Dearolf and Hynes Hynes gets the upgrade he needed
Dearolf received
- Trevor Lawrence QB 14.9(7) → 17.8(6)
- Gus Edwards RB 16.8(3) → 8.8(4)
Hynes received
- Jaylen Waddle WR 11.4(8) → 11.9(6)
A 3-7 defending champion did business with a 6-4 team chasing the bracket, and the receiver landed where there was still a season to play for. Waddle's 71 points beat the 53 Addison and Olave had given Hynes there, and Hynes made the bracket as the 4 seed. Diggs and Ridley left Dearolf 37 points short in that spot, and Lawrence's 107 points were small comfort on a 4-10 team.
Week 10 Nichols and Nofziger Nofziger mugs a contender
Nichols received
- Jonathan Taylor RB 15.0(3) → 17.6(2)
Nofziger received
- Cooper Kupp WR 12.5(4) → 11.3(7)
Nichols was 6-4 and fourth when he made this deal, and he finished 7-7 and out of the bracket. Odell Beckham Jr. and Mattison gave Nichols 26 points in that spot, 53 short of Kupp's output for Nofziger, whose Watson and Barkley had managed the same 26 before him. Nofziger won the trade on a team that finished 5-9 regardless.
Week 13 Nichols and Rademaker Nichols trades down a second time
Nichols received
- Najee Harris RB 9.5(5) → 11.4(3)
Rademaker received
- Jonathan Taylor RB 17.6(2) → 13.6(2)
By week 13 Nichols was trading away the return on his week 10 deal, this time to the league leader. Harris gave him 34 points in a spot where Mattison and Tank Dell had been giving him 51, so the second trade made his lineup worse as well. Swift and Hunt came within seven points of what Harris scored after leaving Rademaker, which is a rounding error for a 12-2 team.
Start and Sit
Croushore set the best lineups in the league. He started 94.8% of what his roster could score and never left more than 11 points on his bench in any week. It earned him nothing, because he went 0-5 in games decided by under ten points and finished 6-8 as the 11 seed. Kane was the worst by a distance, starting 79.4% and leaving 263 points on his bench, 19 a week. In week 14 he started Kenny Pickett at quarterback for 0.0 while Justin Fields scored 25 points on his bench. A quarterback does not score zero by having a bad afternoon, and that looks like a lineup nobody opened.
Nofziger, Nichols, Kane and Bench each lost more than 50 points in a single week. Nobody else lost more than 40 in one Sunday. Bench made the costliest single call of the season in week 3, starting Craig Reynolds for 1.5 over De'Von Achane, who scored 49. That one gets some forgiveness, since nobody sets a lineup expecting a 49-point day. Nofziger also gets a pass for starting Saquon Barkley, who scored six, over Kyren Williams's 35, because a man does not bench Barkley. Nichols has less of an excuse for starting George Pickens for 0.9 over Tank Dell's 27.
The gap mattered most for Bailey. His roster could have scored more than 1564 points, the most in the league, and he started 1342 of them. In week 5 he threw away 31 points by starting Miles Sanders at flex for 1.2 while Zack Moss scored 33 on his bench. He went 0-4 in close games and missed the bracket at 7-7 on division record. Nichols missed the same way after leaving 204 points on his bench. Winning one more game would have put either man at 8-6, and all four 8-6 teams made the bracket. Bench left 213 points on his bench and still got in as the 8 seed.
Optimal vs Actual Lineups
| # | Manager | Optimal | Started | Loss | Per week | Optimality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croushore | 1333.2 | 1263.8 | 69.4 | 5.0 | 94.8% |
| 2 | Noell | 1252.1 | 1168.5 | 83.6 | 6.0 | 93.3% |
| 3 | Maciuba | 1430.2 | 1328.1 | 102.1 | 7.3 | 92.9% |
| 4 | MacDougall | 1503.9 | 1387.7 | 116.2 | 8.3 | 92.3% |
| 5 | Rademaker | 1507.4 | 1389.0 | 118.4 | 8.5 | 92.1% |
| 6 | Hartnett | 1469.5 | 1310.2 | 159.3 | 11.4 | 89.2% |
| 7 | Hynes | 1365.0 | 1214.4 | 150.6 | 10.8 | 89.0% |
| 8 | Dang | 1536.1 | 1353.1 | 183.0 | 13.1 | 88.1% |
| 9 | Dorenbusch | 1338.4 | 1178.4 | 160.0 | 11.4 | 88.0% |
| 10 | Dearolf | 1254.3 | 1082.5 | 171.8 | 12.3 | 86.3% |
| 11 | Bailey | 1564.5 | 1341.6 | 222.9 | 15.9 | 85.8% |
| 12 | Nichols | 1397.1 | 1193.4 | 203.7 | 14.5 | 85.4% |
| 13 | Bench | 1399.9 | 1187.2 | 212.7 | 15.2 | 84.8% |
| 14 | Nofziger | 1434.1 | 1200.7 | 233.4 | 16.7 | 83.7% |
| 15 | Calderon | 1167.6 | 947.5 | 220.1 | 15.7 | 81.1% |
| 16 | Kane | 1275.7 | 1012.4 | 263.3 | 18.8 | 79.4% |
The Worst Single Calls
| Week | Manager | Started | Sat | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bench | Craig Reynolds 1.5 | De'Von Achane 49.3 | 47.8 |
| 5 | Bailey | Miles Sanders 1.2 | Zack Moss 32.5 | 31.3 |
| 12 | Nofziger | Saquon Barkley 5.7 | Kyren Williams 35.4 | 29.7 |
| 8 | Kane | Zay Flowers 4.4 | DeAndre Hopkins 32.8 | 28.4 |
| 9 | Nichols | George Pickens 0.9 | Tank Dell 26.6 | 25.7 |
| 17 | Kane | Kenny Pickett 0.0 | Justin Fields 24.9 | 24.9 |
| 16 | Dorenbusch | Ja'Marr Chase 0.0 | DJ Chark Jr. 24.8 | 24.8 |
| 14 | Kane | Kenny Pickett 0.0 | Justin Fields 24.6 | 24.6 |
The Awards
Best Drafter
MacDougall
MacDougall's software built a roster good enough to knock out top seed Rademaker, then it managed 76 points in the final and left him runner-up again, as in 2019 and 2022.
Best Lineup Setter
Croushore
Croushore let a robot make all fourteen of his picks, squeezed that roster into the seventh-most points in the league, and still watched the bracket from the 11 seed.
Best Pickup Artist
Nofziger
Nofziger was 0-4 and dead last when he went to the wire for a quarterback, and he climbed to 13th behind that claim while opponents put 1255 points on him.
Best Trader
Dearolf
Dearolf's one trade was the best deal of the year, and it could not stop the defending champion going 3-0 in close games and 4-10 overall.
Team by Team
Rademaker Best team in the league, with a tailwind
Rademaker scored 1389 points, the most in the league, and his 1 seed needs no defending even if 12-2 overstates him. His all-play record is worth ten wins, and a perfect 5-0 in games decided by under ten points supplied the rest. He built the team away from the draft board, with 587 points off the wire and C.J. Stroud arriving from Dang in week 5 for 179 more. MacDougall, the only team that scored like him, ended it in the semifinal.
Dang Good team, luckiest record in the league
Dang was the luckiest team in the league, 12-2 on a schedule his all-play record values at nine wins, and a 6-1 record in games decided by under ten points did most of the work. His one real bad break came in week 3, when he scored 135 points and lost to Nichols, the best losing score of the season. The team underneath was still third in points, carried by Christian McCaffrey's 358 points from pick 4. It also left 183 points on the bench, and the schedule never sent him the bill.
MacDougall Second-best team, middling record
MacDougall scored 1388 points, second in the league, and was still 3-4 and ninth after week 7. His 143-67 all-play record put him just behind Rademaker, and a 1-2 mark in close games plus 1315 points against held him to 8-6. His own decisions don't explain the wait, since he also set the fourth-best lineups in the league. He posted the highest score of the regular season, 144 points in week 4, and finished it as a 5 seed nobody wanted to meet.
Maciuba Exactly as good as 8-6
Maciuba got precisely the season he earned, with an all-play record worth eight wins and eight in the column. A 2-4 record in close games cost him, and a schedule that scored only 1147 points against him paid it back. He won with the draft and the lineup screen, starting 93% of what his roster could score and taking just 9% of his points from the wire. Hartnett ended it in the first round, 104 to 92, and the same Cairlos Santanos come back to win the title in 2025.
Hartnett Champion on an honest eight wins
Hartnett is the champion, and the rest of this page has already told that story. The regular season underneath it was as honest as they come, with an all-play record worth eight wins, eight collected and a 2-3 mark in close games. His lineups were middling at 89%, with 159 points left on the bench, and a champion gets to keep that habit. The title joins the one from 2016 and makes up for the 2017 final he lost to Calderon.
Hynes Average team, softest schedule
Hynes went 105-105 against the whole league, which is the profile of a seven-win team, and finished 8-6 as the 4 seed. The difference was a schedule that scored only 1100 points against him, the fewest anybody faced. With Nick Chubb gone, he traded for Jaylen Waddle in week 10 and got 71 points out of a spot that had produced 53 before Waddle arrived. MacDougall was the worst possible first-round draw, and he ended it.
Bailey Good team, bad slide, 0-4 when it counted
Bailey was 5-2 and third after week 7, then 5-5 and eighth by week 10, and he never climbed back. The team behind that slide was the fourth-best scorer in the league, with an all-play record worth nine wins. The draft gave him Tyreek Hill at 9, and his own waiver claim added Puka Nacua's 190 points. He finished with seven wins after going 0-4 in close games, and the 223 points he left on his bench mean bad luck in those games doesn't take all the blame.
Nichols Six-win team, seven wins, no complaints
Nichols was 6-4 and fourth after week 10 and faded to 7-7 on 1193 points, tenth in the league. His all-play record is worth six wins, so the seventh was a gift, and missing the bracket on division record is no injustice. His best afternoon was week 3, when 137 points just beat Dang's 135. His worst was week 13, when he scored 53 points and lost to Kane's 58, the cheapest win of the season.
Bench A seven-win team that got seven
Bench's record is as honest as any in the league, with an all-play mark worth seven wins and seven collected. His division record did the rest, carrying the 11th-best scoring team into the bracket as the 8 seed. The draft, mostly the robot's, did find De'Von Achane at 215, but nine adds and 12% of his points from the wire belong to a manager who stopped shopping. He is still waiting on the title he missed in the 2012 final against Harvey.
Noell Josh Allen and a lucky 7-7
Noell rode Josh Allen, taken 30th, to 366 points across 16 starts, and got very little from anywhere else. His 16 adds on 90% of his budget found 102 points, the smallest haul in the league. His lineups were the second-best in the league at 93%, so the roster was thin rather than mismanaged. A 4-2 record in close games dragged a six-win team to 7-7 and the 7 seed.
Croushore Five close games, five losses
Croushore lost the closest game of the season, 0.2 points to Calderon in week 14, one of five defeats by under ten points with no close wins at all. His all-play record is worth seven wins, he got six, and the seventh-most points in the league bought him only the 11 seed. The one decision worth blaming is handing all fourteen picks to a robot, and after that he managed the roster as well as anybody.
Dorenbusch Six wins, six deserved
Dorenbusch got the six wins his all-play record says he earned, and neither he nor the schedule has anything to argue about. Jalen Hurts, taken 31st, started all 16 weeks for 353 points, and the rest of the roster did little to help him. The wire found only 256 points on 14 adds. He was 4-3 and eighth after week 7 and 4-6 by week 10, and that stretch is where his season went.
Nofziger Unluckiest man in the league
Nofziger was the unluckiest manager in the league, a .500 team at 105-105 against everybody that finished 5-9. An 0-4 start left him last after week 4, and a 1-3 record in close games plus 1255 points against kept him from climbing out. His week 10 trade for Cooper Kupp was a good one, bringing 79 points to a spot where Christian Watson and Saquon Barkley had produced 26. He gave some of it back himself, leaving 233 points on his bench, the second-most in the league.
Dearolf Title defense, no excuses
Dearolf had more points scored against him than anybody, 1344, and that makes a convenient excuse for a 4-10 title defense. His all-play record of 72-137 is worth five wins, though, and he went 3-0 in close games, so the schedule isn't the story. He did find Jordan Love at 203, and a week 10 trade with Hynes brought Trevor Lawrence in and sent Jaylen Waddle out. He also cut Jason Sanders, who scored 81 points afterwards while Brandon McManus managed 48 in his place.
Kane Good draft, empty office
Kane drafted better than most of the league, 2047 points from his own picks with Evan Engram at 82 the best of them, and then left the team to fend for itself. He made two adds all year, spent half his budget and started 79% of what his roster could score. The result was a 53-156 all-play record and a 4-10 finish, including a win bought with 58 points in week 13. The same Steak Sauce win the title in 2024, which suggests somebody eventually came back to the office.
Calderon Last place, fully earned
Calderon was 2-2 and eighth after week 4 and had fallen to last by week 10. He finished 3-11 with the fewest points in the league and the worst all-play record, 52-156, so the 1337 points scored against him hardly matter. He fought a broken draft with the most adds in the league and still left 220 points on his bench. The 2013 and 2017 champion got one gift all year, a 0.2-point win over Croushore in the closest game of the season.