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2024
Kane Shoulders Way Into Chiefdom - Rademaker Numbed by Futility
A robot finishes his draft and the waiver wire finishes his roster, then Steak Sauce sends the top seed home on the way to Kane's first title
Kane drafts the two men who carry his year and then leaves the table early. Saquon Barkley comes at pick ten, and Lamar Jackson falls to him at 42, the best value anybody finds all August. A robot makes his last eight picks. It turns up Darnell Mooney and Jakobi Meyers, who both earn real starts, along with a Jaguars defense that gives him one point. Kane fixes the defense in week four by claiming the Broncos D/ST that Dang has thrown back, a gift Dang gets to regret from ninth place. He works the wire all year and burns nearly his whole budget doing it, and a fifth of his points come from men he never drafted. His one trade, in week eleven, sends a spare Justin Herbert to Hynes for Sam LaPorta and Matthew Stafford. That turns a quarterback he can never start ahead of Lamar Jackson into a tight end he can use. The smudge on all this is the lineup, where he leaves eleven points a week sitting on the bench.
At 1-3 he sits thirteenth. By week ten he has dragged Steak Sauce to 6-4 and fifth. He stalls at 8-6 and backs into the bracket as the eight seed, a poor reward for the fourth-most points in the league and an all-play record worth nearly nine wins. The draw hands him Calderon, the best team in the league by every measure, and Kane sends him home 108 to 98. Next comes Nichols, whose 9-5 record rests on a 5-1 run in close games and who has just hung 145 points on Hartnett. Kane edges him 127 to 122, a coin toss that lands his way. That puts Kane in a final for the first time in the league's history, against a Rademaker side that is seeded seventh and scored the tenth-most points.
The Final
Kane wins the title with Michael Pittman Jr. sitting on his bench. Pittman scores 21 points there while Jaxon Smith-Njigba starts and scores five. That is 17 points in the wrong places, and it costs Kane nothing. No bench decision saves Rademaker either. His best possible lineup scores 90 points, and Kane's actual one scores 110. Starting Drake Maye over Caleb Williams would have helped a little, because Williams gives him seven. The game is decided at quarterback. Lamar Jackson, the steal of the draft at pick 42, puts up 29 points in the final. Adam Thielen's 26 points from the flex are the best thing Rademaker gets all day, and they only make the margin look respectable.
What They Started in the Final
Kane 110.2
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 29.1 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | 17.9 |
| WR | George Pickens | 6.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4.7 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | 15.4 |
| FLEX | Jakobi Meyers | 14.6 |
| DST | Buccaneers D/ST | 16.0 |
| K | Wil Lutz | 6.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 21.4 | |
| Matthew Stafford | 8.8 | |
| Darnell Mooney | 4.7 | |
| Broncos D/ST | 3.0 | |
| Kendre Miller | 2.4 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 126.9, so 16.7 points sat in the wrong places.
Rademaker 86.5
| QB | Caleb Williams | 6.5 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | 9.7 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 13.2 |
| WR | DJ Moore | 9.2 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 3.4 |
| FLEX | Adam Thielen | 25.5 |
| DST | Ravens D/ST | 14.0 |
| K | Brandon McManus | 5.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Tre Tucker | 9.9 | |
| Drake Maye | 9.6 | |
| Xavier Legette | 5.3 | |
| Dawson Knox | 0.9 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 90.3, so 3.8 points sat in the wrong places.
The Playoffs
Dang has the real complaint. Mike Evans, My Jevans scores the fifth-most points in the league and goes 132-78 in all-play, a record only Calderon beats. He still misses the bracket at 7-7, having been scored on more than anybody except Bailey. Nichols and Rademaker take places ahead of him despite finishing eleventh and tenth on points. MacDougall is eighth on points and loses five of his six close games. Then in week 14 he starts Ameer Abdullah for 0.3 points while Zach Charbonnet scores 35 on his bench. MacDougall lost the finals in 2019, 2022 and 2023, and this year he does not reach the bracket at all.
Five of the seven bracket games go to the lower seed, and the seeding deserves most of it. Kane comes in as the eight seed with the fourth-most points, while Maciuba holds the two seed with only the sixth-most. Kane beating Calderon is a good team taking down the best one on a single Sunday. Rademaker has the upsets worth the name as the seventh seed and tenth on points. He knocks out Maciuba 97.6 to 94.8 and then Noell 105.6 to 104.3, and both of those are coin tosses that land his way. Noell finishes second in the league on points and deserves a better exit than that.
Hartnett's title defence ends on a score he could do nothing about. His 116 points beat every other winning score in week 15. The trouble is that Nichols, the luckiest team in the league, picks that week to put up 145, more than anybody manages in fourteen weeks of regular season. The last time Hartnett defended a title, in 2017, he made the final. This time he is out before week 17, when he starts CeeDee Lamb for zero points with Ladd McConkey's 25 on the bench. That is the only one of the season's worst benchings to come after the regular season, and his season was already over when he made it.
The Bracket
Seeds on the left of each pairing. Every line reads left to right, so a man's whole run is the path back from wherever he stopped.
Where They Stood
League rank after every week of the regular season -
record, then points scored.
Green is a manager who made the playoffs
Red is one who finished
inside the top 8 but missed the playoffs
because the league seeds on record within a division rather than league rank.
The Regular Season
All-play is the record a team would have had against every other team every week rather than against the one the schedule gave it. Deserved is that all-play win rate put back over the games actually played, so Dang's 155–55 is a .738 rate across fourteen games and 10.3 wins earned. Luck is wins minus deserved: a team on +3 collected three more than its scoring earned, and a team on −3 was owed three it never got.
| 1 | Calderon Slammin Hogan | 1402.1 | 1114.7 | 144-66 | 11-3 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Noell Team Noell | 1374.9 | 1165.6 | 129-80 | 10-4 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Maciuba Cairlos Santanos | 1337.8 | 1200.2 | 123-87 | 10-4 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Hartnett Win One For The CLTer | 1359.4 | 1273.3 | 128-82 | 9-5 | 8.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Nichols Koopa Troopas | 1235.0 | 1172.6 | 94-115 | 9-5 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Kane Steak Sauce | 1356.0 | 1309.3 | 130-80 | 8-6 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Croushore The Real Philly Chris | 1268.8 | 1232.5 | 110-100 | 8-6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Rademaker Fidel Cashflow | 1240.8 | 1278.1 | 100-110 | 8-6 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Dang Mike Evans, My Jevans | 1349.9 | 1383.3 | 132-78 | 7-7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | MacDougall Vice President Mike Penix | 1265.1 | 1213.1 | 96-114 | 6-8 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 11 | 4 |
| 11 | Nofziger M. Gay for Mahomies | 1241.6 | 1303.8 | 99-111 | 6-8 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 6 |
| 12 | Hynes Paul Walker Died For Our Sins | 1211.1 | 1224.0 | 92-117 | 6-8 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 12 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorenbusch The Muff Diving Snorkel Squad | 1173.7 | 1261.7 | 87-122 | 6-8 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Dearolf The REAL Chris | 1094.6 | 1244.7 | 75-135 | 4-10 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 14 | 2 |
| 15 | Bailey Goffly Likely 2...lose | 1142.5 | 1388.5 | 72-138 | 2-12 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 15 | 15 |
| 16 | Bench _ The Brutes | 1048.5 | 1336.4 | 67-143 | 2-12 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 16 | 1 |
The Draft
Hartnett drafts best, and he does it by being right again and again. His 14 picks scored 2323 points, the most in the league. The value came from four players: Trey McBride at 60, Josh Jacobs at 28, Ladd McConkey at 101 and Jake Bates at 197. His one blemish is CeeDee Lamb at 5, who returned about what the fifth pick usually does. Maciuba finishes second on Derrick Henry at 20 and Jahmyr Gibbs at 13. Calderon drafted nearly as well as either of them, started only 47% of what his picks scored and still went 11-3, which makes his season a waiver story more than a draft story.
Kane wins the title off a draft that comes out even. The robot made eight of his picks, and the whole board finished nine points above what its slots usually return. Lamar Jackson at 42 was a 2.65 sigma steal who scored him 404 points, and Saquon Barkley at 10 added 339. Deshaun Watson at 151 and Jonathon Brooks at 119 gave most of that back, and Michael Pittman Jr. at 23 was simply a bad pick. Hynes mirrors him. Baker Mayfield at 176 scored 312 points, while Travis Etienne Jr. at 17 managed 50. Etienne was fading before he got hurt, and Hynes spent a second-round pick on him anyway.
The robots own the basement. Dorenbusch let the software make 11 picks and ends up with the worst value in the league. Joe Burrow at 46 is his only hit, and Chris Olave at 19 returned 61 points. Croushore handed over all 14 picks, and the robot followed Ja'Marr Chase at 8 with Dak Prescott at 72 and Zamir White at 89. Bench's Christian McCaffrey at 1 returned 40 points, but that was an injury, and nobody can draft around one. Bailey lost Isiah Pacheco at 15 and Rashee Rice at 50 the same way. Dearolf has no such excuse and no robot to blame. He made all 14 picks himself and they scored 1620 points, the fewest in the league, with Deebo Samuel Sr. at 31 and Anthony Richardson at 63 his own bad calls.
What Each Draft Was Worth
- Picked — Total points scored by all draft picks
- Kept — Total points scored while he still owned them, bench included
- Utilized — Share of everything they scored that the manager actually started
- Elsewhere — What his picks went on to score off his roster, by trade or by drop
- Best value — His best single pick, in points above what that draft slot has historically returned, and how unusual that was
VOR − E[VOR | pick] σ = (VOR − E[VOR | pick]) / SD[VOR | pick]
| Best value | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartnett | 2322.9 | 2179.5 | 67% | 143.4 | Trey McBride 60, +85.3 (1.49σ) | |
| Maciuba | 2276.9 | 1869.1 | 67% | 407.8 | Derrick Henry 20, +122.2 (1.79σ) | |
| Dang | 2274.3 | 1910.4 | 64% | 363.9 | 4 | Brock Bowers 107, +117.9 (2.09σ) |
| Calderon | 2268.7 | 1464.5 | 47% | 804.2 | 1 | Brian Thomas Jr. 105, +104.0 (1.88σ) |
| Noell | 2198.4 | 1545.9 | 55% | 652.5 | 3 | Tucker Kraft 222, +82.5 (1.49σ) |
| Nofziger | 2156.2 | 1936.3 | 61% | 219.9 | 7 | Chuba Hubbard 123, +79.0 (1.36σ) |
| Kane | 2153.6 | 1746.3 | 63% | 407.3 | 8 | Lamar Jackson 42, +154.1 (2.65σ) |
| Hynes | 2090.7 | 1332.0 | 44% | 758.7 | Baker Mayfield 176, +137.0 (2.56σ) | |
| Nichols | 1993.8 | 1788.6 | 66% | 205.2 | Jayden Daniels 108, +113.8 (2.04σ) | |
| Rademaker | 1918.8 | 1611.8 | 71% | 307.0 | Aaron Jones 58, +49.8 (0.87σ) | |
| MacDougall | 1899.9 | 1607.5 | 71% | 292.4 | 7 | Josh Allen 36, +98.6 (1.63σ) |
| Bailey | 1766.2 | 1258.7 | 56% | 507.5 | Jared Goff 143, +91.7 (1.61σ) | |
| Dorenbusch | 1712.5 | 1433.1 | 62% | 279.4 | 11 | Joe Burrow 46, +100.3 (1.82σ) |
| Bench | 1675.8 | 1388.7 | 55% | 287.1 | 12 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. 192, +38.7 (0.72σ) |
| Croushore | 1660.0 | 1308.1 | 62% | 351.9 | 14 | Ja'Marr Chase 8, +129.0 (1.77σ) |
| Dearolf | 1620.3 | 1062.6 | 53% | 557.7 | Jason Sanders 223, +82.4 (1.52σ) |
Hits and Busts
- Value — What the whole draft was worth against the slots it cost, summed over every pick
- Hits and busts — Picks that landed a standard deviation either side of what their slot usually returns
| Hits | Busts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartnett | +287.9 | Trey McBride 60, 1.49σ Josh Jacobs 28, 1.31σ Jake Bates 197, 1.25σ Ladd McConkey 101, 1.17σ | Trey Benson 156, -1.55σ Kirk Cousins 124, -1.05σ |
| Maciuba | +279.3 | Derrick Henry 20, 1.79σ Jahmyr Gibbs 13, 1.7σ Seahawks D/ST 205, 1.2σ | Jamaal Williams 212, -1.53σ |
| Calderon | +264.4 | Brian Thomas Jr. 105, 1.88σ Bucky Irving 184, 1.62σ Texans D/ST 216, 1.56σ | Curtis Samuel 152, -1.31σ |
| Noell | +257.8 | Tucker Kraft 222, 1.49σ Terry McLaurin 67, 1.43σ James Conner 62, 1.21σ Jerry Jeudy 131, 1.17σ Courtland Sutton 94, 1.12σ | Blake Corum 158, -1.8σ |
| Dang | +221.4 | Brock Bowers 107, 2.09σ Ka'imi Fairbairn 171, 1.21σ | Daniel Jones 214, -1.37σ Brandin Cooks 139, -1.23σ Stefon Diggs 43, -1.2σ |
| Nofziger | +106.5 | Chuba Hubbard 123, 1.36σ | — |
| Kane | +8.5 | Lamar Jackson 42, 2.65σ Saquon Barkley 10, 1.68σ Cameron Dicker 183, 1.39σ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 87, 1.17σ | Deshaun Watson 151, -2.62σ Jonathon Brooks 119, -2.39σ Will Levis 215, -1.6σ |
| Hynes | -16.0 | Baker Mayfield 176, 2.56σ Chargers D/ST 208, 1.19σ | Trevor Lawrence 112, -1.65σ Travis Etienne Jr. 17, -1.46σ Adonai Mitchell 145, -1.43σ |
| Rademaker | -73.7 | — | Ezekiel Elliott 103, -1.74σ Gus Edwards 122, -1.37σ |
| MacDougall | -96.7 | Josh Allen 36, 1.63σ George Kittle 61, 1.59σ Bijan Robinson 4, 1.19σ | Jalin Hyatt 196, -1.85σ Jaylen Wright 189, -1.78σ Diontae Johnson 68, -1.26σ |
| Nichols | -117.0 | Jayden Daniels 108, 2.04σ Chase Brown 117, 1.43σ | Khalil Herbert 181, -1.95σ DJ Chark Jr. 213, -1.74σ Nick Chubb 85, -1.59σ Christian Kirk 76, -1.47σ Gabe Davis 149, -1.38σ |
| Bailey | -232.4 | Jared Goff 143, 1.61σ Brandon Aubrey 146, 1.42σ | Isiah Pacheco 15, -2.41σ Rashee Rice 50, -2.01σ Zack Moss 111, -1.3σ |
| Dearolf | -305.9 | Jason Sanders 223, 1.52σ Eagles D/ST 194, 1.46σ De'Von Achane 34, 1.24σ | MarShawn Lloyd 162, -2.26σ Hollywood Brown 98, -2.25σ Anthony Richardson 63, -1.66σ Luke Musgrave 191, -1.09σ |
| Bench | -314.3 | — | Christian McCaffrey 1, -2.49σ Brandon Aiyuk 33, -2.05σ Devin Singletary 97, -1.08σ |
| Croushore | -353.3 | Ja'Marr Chase 8, 1.77σ Steelers D/ST 153, 1.21σ | Dak Prescott 72, -2.36σ Zamir White 89, -2.19σ Ty Chandler 136, -1.97σ Mike Williams 121, -1.47σ Miles Sanders 200, -1.01σ |
| Dorenbusch | -395.4 | Joe Burrow 46, 1.82σ | Chris Olave 19, -1.98σ Clyde Edwards-Helaire 206, -1.92σ Ja'Lynn Polk 147, -1.67σ Raheem Mostert 78, -1.57σ Greg Zuerlein 179, -1.22σ |
The Waiver Wire
Hynes works the wire harder than anybody in the league and has almost nothing to show for it. He makes 37 adds, nine of them gone again inside the week, and empties 100% of his budget. The men he cuts score 869 points for other people afterwards, which nets him five points an add. He does find Justin Fields in week 1 and Baker Mayfield in week 2, both at 19 points a start. Croushore spends 50% of his budget on eight adds and clears 47 points an add. He has Chris Boswell from week 5, and in week 11 he picks up Anthony Richardson, whom Dearolf had cut, for 16 points a start. Hartnett makes two adds all year for 53 points an add and then starts only 28% of what they score.
Noell and Calderon get there first on the two quarterbacks nobody drafted. Noell grabs Sam Darnold in week 2 and keeps him all season, starting him eleven times at 20 points a start. Calderon has Bo Nix from week 6 and Jonnu Smith from week 8 on his way to the 1 seed. The men Calderon lets go score 719 points elsewhere, and he still nets 17 points an add.
Bailey and Dang are the only two who finish below zero, and both spend 100% of their budgets getting there. Bailey's cuts score 617 points for other people, a loss of 12 points an add, while Dang's score 508. Dang drops the Broncos D/ST after a single week. Kane picks the unit up in week 4 and gets 12 points a start out of it on the way to his first title. Bench finishes 2-12 but makes seven adds at 44 points an add, so the wire is not what sank the Brutes.
Claiming and Letting Go
- Adds — Number of waiver pickups
- Churn — Number of pickups dropped in < 1 week
- Owned Points — Total points scored while owned
- Started Points — Share of owned points in their starting lineups
- Released Points — Total points scored by players after release
| MacDougall | 23 | 4 | 586.6 | 223.3 38% | 81.2 | +505.4 | +22.0 | 100% |
| Calderon | 23 | 2 | 1117.8 | 717.9 64% | 719.0 | +398.8 | +17.3 | 92% |
| Croushore | 8 | 469.0 | 308.6 66% | 90.4 | +378.6 | +47.3 | 50% | |
| Dorenbusch | 16 | 3 | 583.3 | 337.5 58% | 241.1 | +342.2 | +21.4 | 100% |
| Rademaker | 15 | 2 | 501.7 | 171.4 34% | 176.8 | +324.9 | +21.7 | 80% |
| Bench | 7 | 471.9 | 334.1 71% | 160.8 | +311.1 | +44.4 | 100% | |
| Noell | 14 | 695.8 | 417.1 60% | 395.4 | +300.4 | +21.5 | 100% | |
| Dearolf | 21 | 1 | 719.9 | 495.0 69% | 433.6 | +286.3 | +13.6 | 100% |
| Nichols | 17 | 2 | 534.8 | 276.2 52% | 261.1 | +273.7 | +16.1 | 82% |
| Kane | 15 | 454.8 | 244.7 54% | 244.5 | +210.3 | +14.0 | 98% | |
| Hynes | 37 | 9 | 1042.7 | 632.3 61% | 868.9 | +173.8 | +4.7 | 100% |
| Nofziger | 8 | 323.9 | 220.5 68% | 188.8 | +135.1 | +16.9 | 100% | |
| Maciuba | 11 | 1 | 291.6 | 187.0 64% | 176.1 | +115.5 | +10.5 | 76% |
| Hartnett | 2 | 123.0 | 35.0 28% | 17.0 | +106.0 | +53.0 | 50% | |
| Dang | 16 | 1 | 399.2 | 165.1 41% | 508.4 | -109.2 | -6.8 | 100% |
| Bailey | 22 | 3 | 364.3 | 308.6 85% | 617.0 | -252.7 | -11.5 | 100% |
Who Got There First
| Player | Points | Chain | Big weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold QB | 221.7 | Noell 2–17, 283.1 held all year | 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17 |
| Bo Nix QB | 196.8 | Calderon 6–17, 212.7 held all year | 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17 |
| Chase McLaughlin K | 150.0 | Nofziger 1–2, 25.0 → Dorenbusch 4–17, 125.0 | 1, 5, 13, 15, 17 |
| Kareem Hunt RB | 134.4 | Bailey 3–17, 143.9 held all year | 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16 |
| Zach Ertz TE | 127.2 | Bench 2–17, 127.2 held all year | 7, 11, 12, 17 |
| Vikings D/ST DST | 121.0 | Calderon 1–17, 148.0 held all year | 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 11 |
| Broncos D/ST DST | 106.0 | Dang 2–2, 7.0 → Kane 4–17, 118.0 | 4, 5, 7, 11, 13, 15 |
| Chris Boswell K | 101.0 | Croushore 5–17, 131.0 held all year | 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 |
| Wil Lutz K | 99.0 | Dearolf 6–13, 73.0 → Kane 15–17, 26.0 | 7, 12, 16 |
| Justin Fields QB | 94.1 | Hynes 1–6, 112.3 → Calderon 7–7, 0.0 → Maciuba 8–8, 0.0 | 3, 4, 5, 6 |
The Trades
Croushore, Hynes, Bailey, Noell and Kane make all three of the season's trades. Hynes is in two of them, which fits the man who works the wire harder than anybody. Calderon, Maciuba, Rademaker and the rest of the league never pick up the phone. None of the three deals is close. Croushore and Bailey win theirs comfortably, and Kane pries a tight end out of Hynes on the way to his first title. That tight end is Sam LaPorta, who changes hands twice this year, and Hynes is on the wrong end both times on his way to 12th.
Figures below are ppg as a starter, for the managers trading, with the number of starts in parens. Travis Etienne Jr. reads 10.0(5) → 6.6(8): Hynes started him 5 times for 10.0, Croushore 8 times for 6.6 after the trade. Green is as good or better after, red a decline.
Week 6 Croushore and Hynes Croushore mugs Hynes at tight end
Croushore received
- Travis Etienne Jr. RB 10.0(5) → 6.6(8)
- David Njoku TE 4.2(2) → 12.2(8)
Hynes received
- Sam LaPorta TE 4.5(3) → 8.1(4)
Croushore fixes a tight end spot that had given him 33 points, and the tight end he brings in scores 98 there afterwards. Hynes plugs the same hole with LaPorta and the waiver claim T.J. Hockenson for 63 points, which leaves him 35 short of what he shipped out, and Etienne's 53 points for Croushore come on top of that. Croushore is 3-4 after week 7 and climbs to the 6 seed.
Week 7 Bailey and Noell Bailey wins a trade and nothing else
Bailey received
- Jerry Jeudy WR — → 13.4(7)
Noell received
- Braelon Allen RB 5.1(1) → 10.1(1)
Bailey had been getting 23 points out of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Cooper Kupp in one receiver spot, and the man he brings in puts 94 into it. Noell never started Jeudy once, and Terry McLaurin and Courtland Sutton cover the spot so well that losing him costs two points, with Braelon Allen adding 10 on his side. Bailey wins the deal outright and then does not win another game, finishing 2-12.
Week 11 Hynes and Kane Hynes hands the champion a tight end
Hynes received
- Justin Herbert QB — → 18.3(3)
Kane received
- Sam LaPorta TE 8.1(4) → 11.3(6)
- Matthew Stafford QB — → 20.8(1)
Kane is 6-4 when he deals and ends the year with a trophy, and the tight end he takes off Hynes scores 68 points for him from week 11 on. Hynes gets 55 points out of Justin Herbert, fewer than LaPorta alone gives Kane, and Matthew Stafford adds 21 more on Kane's side. Hynes bought LaPorta in week 6, got 32 points out of him and sells him just before the good part.
Start and Sit
Maciuba sets the tidiest lineups in the league. He starts 94 percent of what his roster offers and leaves only 90 points on the bench all regular season. His worst Sunday costs him 22 points, which is an ordinary week for most of this league. Croushore is the only other manager above 92 percent. Maciuba doesn't have a monster roster, but he wastes less of it than anybody. That turns the sixth-best points total into a 10-4 record and the 2 seed.
The bottom belongs to Nofziger at 83.7 percent and Hynes at 84.0, with 241 and 231 points left on their benches. Nofziger wastes 17 points a week and goes 0-4 in games decided by under ten points. The dumbest single call belongs to MacDougall, though. In week 14 he starts Ameer Abdullah at flex for 0.3 points while Zach Charbonnet scores 35 on his bench. Calderon's week 3 is a bigger number on paper, but starting Zay Flowers over Jauan Jennings was a sensible call right up until Jennings scored 41 and Flowers scored four.
Calderon also ties Nofziger at 241 points lost, and he owns the week that stands clear of everything else in the table. He gives away 57 points in one Sunday, and no other manager loses more than 39 in any week. That looks a lot like a lineup nobody opened. He goes 11-3 and takes the 1 seed anyway, because his roster had 1643 points available, the most in the league. The manager the bench most plausibly costs is Dang. He finishes fifth in points and 132-78 in all-play, but he leaves 189 points unstarted and finishes 7-7, one place outside the bracket. A brutal 1383 points against did plenty of that damage too. Kane takes the last spot at 8-6 with 153 points wasted and goes on to win the whole thing.
Optimal vs Actual Lineups
| # | Manager | Optimal | Started | Loss | Per week | Optimality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maciuba | 1427.5 | 1337.8 | 89.7 | 6.4 | 93.7% |
| 2 | Croushore | 1375.7 | 1268.8 | 106.9 | 7.6 | 92.2% |
| 3 | Hartnett | 1494.2 | 1359.4 | 134.8 | 9.6 | 91.0% |
| 4 | Noell | 1512.3 | 1374.9 | 137.4 | 9.8 | 90.9% |
| 5 | Rademaker | 1371.8 | 1240.8 | 131.0 | 9.4 | 90.5% |
| 6 | Kane | 1509.0 | 1356.0 | 153.0 | 10.9 | 89.9% |
| 7 | MacDougall | 1423.6 | 1265.1 | 158.5 | 11.3 | 88.9% |
| 8 | Dang | 1538.9 | 1349.9 | 189.0 | 13.5 | 87.7% |
| 9 | Bailey | 1303.6 | 1142.5 | 161.1 | 11.5 | 87.6% |
| 10 | Nichols | 1409.4 | 1235.0 | 174.4 | 12.5 | 87.6% |
| 11 | Dorenbusch | 1357.2 | 1173.7 | 183.5 | 13.1 | 86.5% |
| 12 | Dearolf | 1275.8 | 1094.6 | 181.2 | 12.9 | 85.8% |
| 13 | Calderon | 1643.2 | 1402.1 | 241.1 | 17.2 | 85.3% |
| 14 | Bench | 1242.5 | 1048.5 | 194.0 | 13.9 | 84.4% |
| 15 | Hynes | 1441.7 | 1211.1 | 230.6 | 16.5 | 84.0% |
| 16 | Nofziger | 1482.7 | 1241.6 | 241.1 | 17.2 | 83.7% |
The Worst Single Calls
| Week | Manager | Started | Sat | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Calderon | Zay Flowers 3.8 | Jauan Jennings 41.0 | 37.2 |
| 14 | MacDougall | Ameer Abdullah 0.3 | Zach Charbonnet 34.8 | 34.5 |
| 13 | Bailey | Cooper Kupp 3.2 | Jerry Jeudy 36.0 | 32.8 |
| 17 | Hartnett | CeeDee Lamb 0.0 | Ladd McConkey 25.4 | 25.4 |
| 4 | Hynes | Travis Etienne Jr. 6.5 | Kenneth Walker III 31.6 | 25.1 |
| 11 | Calderon | Kyle Pitts 1.4 | Jonnu Smith 25.1 | 23.7 |
| 9 | Dorenbusch | Puka Nacua 1.6 | DeAndre Hopkins 24.6 | 23.0 |
| 12 | Hynes | Cedric Tillman 1.8 | Jaylen Waddle 24.4 | 22.6 |
The Awards
Best Drafter
Hartnett
Hartnett's draft is so good he makes two adds all year, and it drags the defending champion from 10th after four weeks to the 5 seed before Nichols drops 145 points on him.
Best Lineup Setter
Maciuba
Maciuba barely starts a wrong man all season, still goes out by three points to the 7 seed Rademaker in week 15, and fixes it by winning the whole thing the next year.
Best Pickup Artist
Croushore
Croushore's eight claims turn a 5-5 team after ten weeks into the 6 seed, though a 5-2 record in close games does a fair share of the lifting.
Best Trader
Croushore
Croushore hands all fourteen picks to the software, mugs somebody in a trade to fix it, and still musters only 77 points against Noell in the first round.
Team by Team
Calderon Best team, gone on the first Sunday
Calderon has the best team in the league, first in points with 1402 and 144-66 against the whole field. He builds it off the wire, where 40% of his scoring comes from men he never drafted, the biggest share in the league. Even so, 11-3 is a shade kinder than the ten wins his all-play record deserves. None of it survives week 15, when the 8 seed beats him 108 to 98.
Noell Second best, slightly flattered
Noell scores the second-most points in the league and mostly earns his 10-4, even if the 129-80 all-play record is worth nine wins rather than ten. His one real mistake is the week 7 deal with Bailey. It sends away Jerry Jeudy, who scores 94 points afterwards, and brings back Braelon Allen, who scores ten. The year ends in week 16 with a 106 to 104 loss to a Rademaker side that finished tenth in points.
Maciuba Two seed on a sixth-place roster
Maciuba turns the sixth-most points in the league into 10-4 and the 2 seed, though his 123-87 all-play record is worth eight wins and the schedule supplies the rest. He barely touches the wire, which gives him 11% of his points, and wins with the team he drafted. Rademaker ends it in week 15, 98 to 95, and the third title has to wait until 2025.
Hartnett Fair record, unfair Sunday
Hartnett's 9-5 is about what a 128-82 all-play record should produce, which makes him the least flattered team in the top five. He posts the biggest score of the regular season, 144 points in week 8, and his 134 in week 12 hands Kane the best losing score of the year. Only 2% of his points come from men he did not draft, so the defending champion lives entirely off his August, and that holds up until Nichols finds 145 in the bracket.
Nichols Luckiest team in the league
Nichols goes 9-5 on the eleventh-most points in the league, and his 94-115 all-play record says six wins were deserved. The difference comes mostly from going 5-1 in games decided by under ten points, which is a coin landing heads five times out of six. Jayden Daniels at 108 is the one piece of real work on the roster. Fortune carries him all the way to a 127 to 122 loss to Kane in week 16, further than an eleventh-place scoring team has any right to go.
Kane Deserving champion, shortchanged by the schedule
Kane's title is less of an upset than the 8 seed makes it look. Steak Sauce is fourth in points with a 130-80 all-play record worth nine wins, and 1309 points against drag that down to 8-6. His one clear wire mistake is cutting Cameron Dicker, who scores 119 points afterwards and costs Kane 29 against what Cam Little and Chad Ryland give him. The schedule makes him take the long way to his first title, and he takes it straight through the 1 seed.
Croushore Robot drafts, Croushore repairs
Croushore lets the robot make all 14 picks and then runs the leftovers better than most managers run their own teams. The week 6 trade with Hynes brings in David Njoku, who scores 98 points afterwards in a spot Sam LaPorta and Zamir White had filled for 33. His lineups rank second only to Maciuba's, and a 5-2 record in close games lifts a roster worth seven wins to 8-6. Noell sends him home in week 15, 93 to 77.
Rademaker Tenth in points, second in the league
Rademaker leads the league at 4-0 and again at 6-1, then drops three straight and slides into the bracket as the 7 seed on the tenth-most points. His 100-110 all-play record is worth seven wins, and Aaron Jones at 58 is the best value his draft finds, only 50 points above the slot. Then he knocks out Maciuba 98 to 95 and Noell 106 to 104 to reach his first final, where Kane beats him 110 to 86.
Dang Deserves nine wins, gets seven
Dang builds the second-best team in the league by all-play, 132-78, and misses the bracket at 7-7 because only Bailey is scored on more. His draft is sound, with Brock Bowers at 107 the pick of it, and his own picks score the third-most in the league. The damage he does himself comes later, when he leaves 189 points on the bench and throws back the Broncos defense that Kane claims in week 4.
MacDougall Exactly the record he earned
MacDougall's 6-8 lands right on what a 96-114 all-play record is worth, so the 1-5 mark in close games stings without costing him much. Josh Allen scores 377 points in 16 starts and carries the team nearly alone, because the robot's seven picks and 23 waiver adds give him little help. Week 12 sums up the year, when his 56 points lose to Croushore's 63 in the cheapest win of the season.
Nofziger Loses every coin toss, cuts the kicker
Nofziger loses all four of his games decided by under ten points, and with the worst lineup rate in the league not every one of those is bad luck. He also cuts Chase McLaughlin, who scores 125 points afterwards for Dorenbusch, 17 more than Matt Gay and Cairo Santos give him in the same spot. Chuba Hubbard at 123 is a genuinely good pick, and a climb from 3-7 at week 10 leaves him at 6-8 against an all-play record worth seven wins.
Hynes Busiest man in the league, right where he belongs
Hynes does more than anybody in the league and finishes right where his points put him, 12th in scoring and 12th in the standings. His 6-8 matches an all-play record worth six wins, so the 37 adds and two trades change the roster without changing the result. Letting David Njoku go in the Croushore deal costs him 35 points against what T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta give him, and another 231 sit unused on his bench.
Dorenbusch Worst start, honest finish
Dorenbusch sits last in the league at 1-6 after seven weeks and still climbs to 6-8, which is about what a 13th-place scoring team deserves. The software picks 11 of his players, and he spends the year working around them. Joe Burrow scores 357 points in 16 starts, and Chase McLaughlin arrives off the wire in week 4 to replace a Greg Zuerlein who had given him 12.
Dearolf Champion two years ago, fourteenth now
Dearolf's 4-10 sits close to the five wins a 75-135 all-play record deserves, so the schedule is not what sinks him. The players he drafted himself score the fewest points in the league, and the wire has to supply 37% of his scoring, a share only Calderon beats. The best value of his own draft is a kicker, Jason Sanders at 223. Two years after winning the title, The REAL Chris finishes 14th.
Bailey Unluckiest in the league, and bad as well
Bailey is the unluckiest team in the league, scored on more than anybody and stuck at 2-12 when his 72-138 all-play record deserves five wins. He is also 14th in points, with Isiah Pacheco returning 28 from pick 15, so the roster was poor as well as unlucky. He never wins again after week 4, and one of his two wins is a one-point escape against Bench in week 3. Prising Jerry Jeudy out of Noell in week 7 is the one clear win of his year, worth 94 points afterwards.
Bench Worst team, still shortchanged
Bench has the worst team in the league, last in points and 67-143 against the whole field, and even that team deserved four or five wins rather than two. Christian McCaffrey's injury guts the roster from pick one, and the robot's 12 picks turn up nothing better than Tyrone Tracy Jr. at 192. He goes 1-3 in close games, and one of those losses is the closest game of the season, a single point to Bailey in week 3.