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2025
Calderon Merck-ed by MilliporeSigma Male Maciuba
Five-and-five in week ten, the seventh seed prised Stefon Diggs off Hynes and took the bracket apart from below
The draft Maciuba won this with was two good picks and a lot of shrugging. McCaffrey at sixth carried the team from September, and then the middle rounds handed him Terry McLaurin, Isiah Pacheco and Matthew Golden, the last of whom finished with 7.6 points to his name. The pick that actually mattered came 155th, where he took Matthew Stafford and got 197 points out of him, more than Baker Mayfield returned as the quarterback he had drafted first. Beyond that he barely moved, with fifteen adds across the whole season, a little over half the waiver budget spent, and less than a fifth of his points coming from men he had not drafted himself.
What he did do, he did in week ten, and it decided the year. He was 5-5 and ninth, and one starting receiver spot had produced 31.8 points across the entire first half with Tory Horton and Hunter Henry passing it back and forth. So Maciuba made the only trade of his season, and he made it with the man in first place, prising Stefon Diggs out of Hynes's roster for the run home. Diggs gave him 76.7 points, Hynes went out in the semi-final, and the middle of the Cairlos Santanos lineup stopped being a hole.
Then the bracket fell in on everybody above him. The seventh seed drew Dang, who had scored more points than anyone in the league and gone 155-55 against the field, and beat him with 98.8 points on an afternoon when Dang could only find 88.6. Nichols got the best game of Maciuba's season a week later, 137.3. That set up a final against Calderon, which is exactly where the two of them stood in 2015, the year of Maciuba's first title. A manager who spent the season leaving 15 points a week on his own bench, including 31.9 in one week, came out of the wrong half of the bracket with a third one.
The Final
Calderon lost this on his own bench. Jacory Croskey-Merritt sat there for 22.5 points while George Pickens started and managed 9.8. Put Croskey-Merritt in the FLEX, slide Ja'Marr Chase across to receiver, drop Pickens, and Calderon is the champion. The near miss is nastier still. Croskey-Merritt straight in for RJ Harvey, which is the swap anybody would actually have made, gains 6.4 points and still loses by 0.3. Maciuba was no cleaner about it. He left Parker Washington and 15.0 points on his bench behind Tee Higgins for 7.9, which is more than the 6.7 he ended up winning by. What covered for him was the top of his roster, where McCaffrey's 26.1 and Diggs's 19.1 paid off Stafford's 12.4 against Lawrence's 23.0.
What They Started in the Final
Maciuba 109.1
| QB | Matthew Stafford | 12.4 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | 26.1 |
| WR | Jauan Jennings | 11.2 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | 7.9 |
| TE | Hunter Henry | 12.4 |
| FLEX | Stefon Diggs | 19.1 |
| DST | Saints D/ST | 12.0 |
| K | Cairo Santos | 8.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Parker Washington | 15.0 | |
| Terry McLaurin | 8.8 | |
| Tre Tucker | 7.4 | |
| Jake Ferguson | 7.1 | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3.2 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 116.2, so 7.1 points sat in the wrong places.
Calderon 102.4
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 23.0 |
| RB | RJ Harvey | 16.1 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11.7 |
| WR | George Pickens | 9.8 |
| TE | Colby Parkinson | 8.3 |
| FLEX | Ja'Marr Chase | 21.5 |
| DST | Cowboys D/ST | 2.0 |
| K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.0 |
| on the bench | ||
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 22.5 | |
| Kyle Monangai | 6.2 | |
| Mike Gesicki | 5.7 | |
| Michael Carter | 5.3 | |
The best arrangement of the same roster scores 115.1, so 12.7 points sat in the wrong places.
The Playoffs
Croushore finished seventh in the league on 1236 points and did not make the bracket. He went 0-3 in games decided by under ten points, one of them the week three loss to Hynes by 0.4 points, and his 111-99 record against the whole field was worth 7.4 wins rather than the six the schedule gave him. Dearolf sat one place below him on 1231 points and 7.2 deserved wins, also at home. The man who took a spot in that neighbourhood was Nichols, eleventh in scoring at 1190 points and 97-113 against the field, who went 8-6 and reached the semi-final. Dorenbusch had it worst of anyone, tenth in the league on 1224 points, scored on more than anybody at 1363 against, and 3-11 to show for it. Playing for nothing in week 15 he started Taysom Hill at tight end for 0.2 points and left Darren Waller and his 22 points on the bench, the biggest benching of the week by a man with no game left to lose.
Five of the seven bracket games went to the lower seed, and the seeding had earned very little protection. Hartnett was the 1 seed on the ninth-most points in the league and a 106-104 all-play record, which is 7.1 deserved wins against the ten he banked, and Calderon removed him in week 15 by 120 points to 99 before doing the same to Hynes a week later. Dang was the exception to all the grumbling about format, because he had scored more than anybody at 1408 points and gone 155-55 against the field, then lost in the first round with 89 points of his own. Nichols ended his year on 108 points in the semi-final, enough to have won two of the other five games in the bracket, and ran into the 137 that was the best score Maciuba posted all season.
The defending champion was nowhere near any of it. Kane won the title in 2024 and then finished 2025 last in the league on 1033 points at 3-11, with seven acquisitions across fourteen weeks in a season where Hynes made fifty-seven. MacDougall missed out too, which at least spared him the role he has made his own, having lost the final in 2019, 2022 and 2023. He went 7-7 on the fourteenth-most points with a 4-1 record in close games, so the schedule had already been generous to him before the bracket declined to send an invitation.
The Bracket
Seeds on the left of each pairing. Every line reads left to right, so a man's whole run is the path back from wherever he stopped.
Where They Stood
League rank after every week of the regular season -
record, then points scored.
Green is a manager who made the playoffs
Red is one who finished
inside the top 8 but missed the playoffs
because the league seeds on record within a division rather than league rank.
The Regular Season
All-play is the record a team would have had against every other team every week rather than against the one the schedule gave it. Deserved is that all-play win rate put back over the games actually played, so Dang's 155–55 is a .738 rate across fourteen games and 10.3 wins earned. Luck is wins minus deserved: a team on +3 collected three more than its scoring earned, and a team on −3 was owed three it never got.
| 1 | Dang Mike Evans, My Jevans | 1407.7 | 1189.0 | 155-55 | 10-4 | 10.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Nofziger Tua Many Concussions | 1280.3 | 1136.8 | 120-90 | 10-4 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Hynes My watch has ended | 1255.7 | 1139.5 | 109-99 | 10-4 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Hartnett Win One For the CLTer | 1224.0 | 1049.8 | 106-104 | 10-4 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Noell Team Noell | 1320.4 | 1152.0 | 136-74 | 9-5 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Calderon The Golden Receivers | 1296.9 | 1247.3 | 128-82 | 8-6 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 1 |
| 7 | Maciuba Cairlos Santanos | 1237.5 | 1276.0 | 107-103 | 8-6 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Nichols Koopa Troopas | 1189.7 | 1213.1 | 97-113 | 8-6 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | Bench The Brutes | 1175.5 | 1234.7 | 92-118 | 7-7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | MacDougall Bustin Jefferson | 1121.3 | 1256.5 | 78-132 | 7-7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | Croushore The Real Philly Chris | 1236.1 | 1236.1 | 111-99 | 6-8 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 12 | 8 |
| 12 | Dearolf The REAL Chris | 1231.1 | 1299.0 | 107-102 | 6-8 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 2 |
| 13 | Rademaker Fidel Cashflow | 1140.2 | 1220.1 | 87-122 | 4-10 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 13 | 7 |
| 14 | Dorenbusch The Muff Diving Snorkel Squad | 1223.9 | 1362.6 | 104-106 | 3-11 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 14 | 10 |
| 15 | Bailey I beat angelo lol. What a loser | 1095.1 | 1274.4 | 80-130 | 3-11 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 16 | 11 |
| 16 | Kane Steak Sauce | 1033.0 | 1181.5 | 61-149 | 3-11 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 15 | 16 |
The Draft
Maciuba drafts best, and he has the trophy to go with it. His picks rank only third on raw points, but his 251 points above the slots lead the league, and they come from being right more than once. Christian McCaffrey at six returns him 357 points. Matthew Stafford at 155 returns 321 points, a 2.64 sigma steal and the best pick anybody makes. Nichols drafts the most points of anyone with 2164, and he finds Jared Goff at 141 for 279 points. Then he starts Goff three times.
The busts split into bad luck and bad judgment. Croushore's Malik Nabers at eight and Rademaker's Joe Burrow at 39 both lose most of the year to injury, and neither pick was a mistake in August. Calderon's Jayden Daniels at 32 is a defensible gamble on a quarterback who got hurt, and Calderon wins it back one pick later with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His Kaleb Johnson at 97 is plain rookie hype, and it costs him 2.2 sigma. Nofziger's Kyler Murray at 79 and Bailey's Austin Ekeler at 86 are just as wrong. MacDougall gets his draft wrong from top to bottom and finishes 262 points under his slots, with Calvin Ridley at 60 and Najee Harris at 124 doing the most damage.
Then there are the men who never drafted at all. Kane is the defending champion, and he lets the robot make all fourteen of his picks. What comes back is the worst draft in the league: 408 points under the slots, not a single hit, and James Conner at 48 as the low point. Croushore also hands over all fourteen picks. The software blunders into Drake Maye at 89 for 334 points, and the draft still ends up 285 points in the hole. Dorenbusch lets the machine make eight picks and breaks even, which is the best review the machine gets all year.
What Each Draft Was Worth
- Picked — Total points scored by all draft picks
- Kept — Total points scored while he still owned them, bench included
- Utilized — Share of everything they scored that the manager actually started
- Elsewhere — What his picks went on to score off his roster, by trade or by drop
- Best value — His best single pick, in points above what that draft slot has historically returned, and how unusual that was
VOR − E[VOR | pick] σ = (VOR − E[VOR | pick]) / SD[VOR | pick]
| Best value | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nichols | 2163.5 | 1908.2 | 64% | 255.3 | Caleb Williams 84, +97.7 (1.81σ) | |
| Hartnett | 2091.2 | 1705.2 | 69% | 386.0 | Bijan Robinson 3, +121.1 (1.66σ) | |
| Maciuba | 2076.7 | 1749.9 | 62% | 326.8 | Matthew Stafford 155, +149.9 (2.64σ) | |
| Calderon | 2026.7 | 1443.1 | 58% | 583.6 | 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 33, +136.1 (2.25σ) |
| Dang | 2014.7 | 1370.5 | 55% | 644.2 | 1 | Texans D/ST 140, +102.2 (1.81σ) |
| Bailey | 2002.5 | 1273.7 | 52% | 728.8 | Trevor Lawrence 182, +137.2 (2.47σ) | |
| Noell | 1947.0 | 1646.1 | 67% | 300.9 | 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs 4, +120.2 (1.63σ) |
| Nofziger | 1906.2 | 1488.5 | 64% | 417.7 | 2 | Jonathan Taylor 18, +146.1 (2.12σ) |
| Rademaker | 1890.7 | 1809.0 | 70% | 81.7 | Travis Etienne Jr. 122, +109.1 (1.88σ) | |
| Dearolf | 1886.5 | 1454.2 | 66% | 432.3 | Josh Allen 31, +105.7 (1.67σ) | |
| Dorenbusch | 1840.4 | 1767.5 | 69% | 72.9 | 8 | Javonte Williams 106, +94.4 (1.7σ) |
| Hynes | 1804.9 | 875.6 | 40% | 929.3 | Dak Prescott 110, +100.2 (1.79σ) | |
| Bench | 1781.7 | 1370.1 | 55% | 411.6 | 4 | Justin Herbert 88, +69.5 (1.25σ) |
| MacDougall | 1675.5 | 1230.9 | 56% | 444.6 | 1 | Trey McBride 28, +114.0 (1.76σ) |
| Croushore | 1545.8 | 1357.4 | 76% | 188.4 | 14 | Drake Maye 89, +133.5 (2.4σ) |
| Kane | 1545.7 | 1136.2 | 57% | 409.5 | 14 | Cairo Santos 177, +25.1 (0.46σ) |
Hits and Busts
- Value — What the whole draft was worth against the slots it cost, summed over every pick
- Hits and busts — Picks that landed a standard deviation either side of what their slot usually returns
| Hits | Busts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Maciuba | +251.0 | Matthew Stafford 155, 2.64σ Christian McCaffrey 6, 2.2σ Hunter Henry 134, 1.06σ | Matthew Golden 91, -1.32σ Isiah Pacheco 70, -1.1σ Terry McLaurin 38, -1.09σ |
| Nichols | +213.1 | Caleb Williams 84, 1.81σ Jared Goff 141, 1.61σ | Adam Thielen 212, -1.21σ Cedric Tillman 148, -1.11σ |
| Hartnett | +195.2 | Bijan Robinson 3, 1.66σ Michael Wilson 195, 1.42σ | Travis Hunter 67, -1.5σ J.J. McCarthy 131, -1.37σ Chris Godwin Jr. 99, -1.09σ |
| Bailey | +130.3 | Trevor Lawrence 182, 2.47σ Brandon Aubrey 150, 1.3σ Chargers D/ST 214, 1.16σ Jaylen Warren 75, 1.03σ | Austin Ekeler 86, -2.2σ Tank Bigsby 107, -1.36σ Ollie Gordon II 139, -1.25σ |
| Dang | +123.9 | Texans D/ST 140, 1.81σ De'Von Achane 12, 1.24σ Wan'Dale Robinson 149, 1.01σ | Joe Mixon 172, -2.15σ |
| Calderon | +100.9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 33, 2.25σ George Pickens 65, 1.85σ Ka'imi Fairbairn 193, 1.72σ Rams D/ST 224, 1.47σ | Jayden Daniels 32, -2.27σ Kaleb Johnson 97, -2.2σ Rashod Bateman 161, -1.12σ |
| Noell | +97.5 | Jahmyr Gibbs 4, 1.63σ Broncos D/ST 132, 1.21σ Cameron Dicker 164, 1.16σ | Tyreek Hill 29, -1.97σ Ray-Ray McCloud III 221, -1.48σ Joshua Palmer 189, -1.13σ |
| Nofziger | +37.6 | Jonathan Taylor 18, 2.12σ Puka Nacua 15, 1.64σ Dallas Goedert 114, 1.09σ D'Andre Swift 50, 1.05σ | Kyler Murray 79, -2.47σ Trey Benson 143, -1.6σ Xavier Worthy 47, -1.16σ |
| Dorenbusch | +0.7 | Javonte Williams 106, 1.7σ Patriots D/ST 170, 1.22σ | Jaydon Blue 151, -1.68σ Jerome Ford 138, -1.65σ Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 215, -1.41σ |
| Rademaker | -17.3 | Travis Etienne Jr. 122, 1.88σ James Cook III 26, 1.58σ | Joe Burrow 39, -1.93σ Amari Cooper 199, -1.84σ Josh Reynolds 218, -1.34σ |
| Dearolf | -51.4 | Josh Allen 31, 1.67σ Chris Olave 95, 1.6σ Kyle Pitts Sr. 130, 1.37σ | Braelon Allen 127, -1.84σ Will Shipley 162, -1.79σ Mike Evans 34, -1.56σ Brian Robinson Jr. 159, -1.01σ |
| Bench | -60.2 | Justin Herbert 88, 1.25σ Vikings D/ST 152, 1.05σ | Kendre Miller 201, -1.37σ Tutu Atwell 216, -1.16σ Chuba Hubbard 24, -1.14σ |
| Hynes | -62.0 | Dak Prescott 110, 1.79σ | Brandon Aiyuk 179, -2.07σ Christian Kirk 142, -1.25σ Ricky Pearsall 78, -1.05σ |
| MacDougall | -261.7 | Trey McBride 28, 1.76σ Bo Nix 69, 1.41σ | Najee Harris 124, -2.01σ Calvin Ridley 60, -1.85σ Alvin Kamara 37, -1.38σ Michael Penix Jr. 188, -1.31σ |
| Croushore | -284.6 | Drake Maye 89, 2.4σ Seahawks D/ST 153, 2.05σ | Malik Nabers 8, -2.09σ Tyler Bass 168, -1.89σ Dameon Pierce 200, -1.85σ Garrett Wilson 40, -1.33σ |
| Kane | -407.7 | — | James Conner 48, -2.33σ Jayden Reed 112, -1.48σ Brian Thomas Jr. 16, -1.15σ Justin Fields 144, -1.09σ |
The Waiver Wire
Croushore made eight moves all season, one of which lasted less than a week, and finished with 56 points an add, the best return in the league. He spent 100% of his budget and took Jason Myers in week one, then left him alone through week seventeen for 189 points and eight weeks in which the kicker was worth starting. Bench worked it nearly as cleanly with eleven adds and nothing churned, and his Dak Prescott claim in week four was the most useful of the year by a distance: ten starts at 19 points a start, 188 points into his lineup.
Hynes made fifty-seven adds, twenty-one of which were gone before the next week's roster, and burned 100% of his budget doing it. The men he released went on to score 1430 points for other people, a net of -624 points and last place at this job by a mile. Two of those releases were the whole story. He had Jaxson Dart in week four and let him go, he had Rico Dowdle in week one and let him go, and Dang picked up both for 184 and 176 points. Calderon's forty-five adds returned 4 points an add and leaked 693 points to other rosters, though he did find Trevor Lawrence in week fourteen, whose 29 points a start over three starts is the best rate of the season and a small enough sample that the rate is all it is.
Nofziger spent 69% of his budget on ten adds, churned none of them and returned 31 points an add, which is the quiet version of what Croushore did. Dorenbusch got 90% of what he owned into his lineup, the highest conversion in the league, and nobody he let go scored a single point anywhere else. The other failures were failures of use rather than volume: Hartnett's twelve claims were worth 446 points and 90 of them reached his lineup, a rate of 20%, while Nichols left 73% of his budget unspent and still only got 1 point an add out of thirteen. Hartnett's worst read was Michael Wilson, whom he drafted, never started and dropped after three weeks. Hynes, of all people, took him in week eleven and got 17 points a start out of him.
Claiming and Letting Go
- Adds — Number of waiver pickups
- Churn — Number of pickups dropped in < 1 week
- Owned Points — Total points scored while owned
- Started Points — Share of owned points in their starting lineups
- Released Points — Total points scored by players after release
| Croushore | 8 | 1 | 466.0 | 294.5 63% | 18.9 | +447.1 | +55.9 | 100% |
| Bench | 11 | 508.3 | 336.7 66% | 145.3 | +363.0 | +33.0 | 100% | |
| MacDougall | 32 | 6 | 841.4 | 420.6 50% | 490.1 | +351.3 | +11.0 | 100% |
| Nofziger | 10 | 479.3 | 282.5 59% | 173.0 | +306.3 | +30.6 | 69% | |
| Dang | 23 | 4 | 845.5 | 528.2 62% | 539.9 | +305.6 | +13.3 | 81% |
| Maciuba | 15 | 399.8 | 214.3 54% | 106.6 | +293.2 | +19.5 | 59% | |
| Noell | 9 | 256.4 | 144.5 56% | 39.4 | +217.0 | +24.1 | 61% | |
| Dorenbusch | 8 | 202.4 | 182.6 90% | 0.0 | +202.4 | +25.3 | 100% | |
| Calderon | 45 | 7 | 856.4 | 451.8 53% | 692.7 | +163.7 | +3.6 | 100% |
| Rademaker | 9 | 210.6 | 96.8 46% | 75.1 | +135.5 | +15.1 | 100% | |
| Dearolf | 21 | 1 | 710.4 | 292.2 41% | 609.9 | +100.5 | +4.8 | 100% |
| Nichols | 13 | 291.0 | 125.4 43% | 275.4 | +15.6 | +1.2 | 27% | |
| Hartnett | 12 | 446.4 | 89.8 20% | 452.6 | -6.2 | -0.5 | 77% | |
| Bailey | 17 | 433.1 | 187.5 43% | 454.7 | -21.6 | -1.3 | 100% | |
| Kane | 7 | 1 | 344.7 | 293.2 85% | 403.4 | -58.7 | -8.4 | 100% |
| Hynes | 57 | 21 | 806.3 | 444.3 55% | 1429.8 | -623.5 | -10.9 | 100% |
Who Got There First
| Player | Points | Chain | Big weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers K | 180.0 | Croushore 1–17, 189.0 held all year | 3, 4, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 |
| Jaxson Dart QB | 155.9 | Hynes 4–4, 19.8 → Dang 6–17, 184.2 | 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 15, 17 |
| Rico Dowdle RB | 122.9 | Hynes 1–1, 2.6 → Dang 5–17, 176.0 | 5, 6, 9, 10, 11 |
| Jaguars D/ST DST | 105.0 | Calderon 3–7, 29.0 → Nichols 9–9, 3.0 → Kane 10–17, 73.0 | 3, 4, 11, 13 |
| Marcus Mariota QB | 98.9 | Calderon 4–4, 16.0 → Rademaker 8–8, 11.2 → Calderon 10–14, 54.9 → Hynes 15–16, 18.2 | 4, 10, 11, 13, 15 |
| Ryan Fitzgerald K | 81.0 | Kane 5–17, 81.0 held all year | 6, 16 |
| Juwan Johnson TE | 78.2 | Bailey 2–17, 124.2 held all year | 2, 10, 16 |
| Matt Prater K | 76.0 | Dearolf 2–6, 39.0 → Nichols 10–10, 1.0 → Calderon 11–11, 8.0 → Dearolf 12–17, 28.0 | 2 |
| Theo Johnson TE | 75.1 | Dearolf 5–17, 88.2 held all year | 5, 7 |
| Will Reichard K | 75.0 | Hynes 4–4, 8.0 → MacDougall 8–13, 40.0 → Nichols 16–17, 27.0 | 17 |
The Trades
Seven trades go through in 2025 and Hynes is in every one of them, which suits a man who also makes fifty-seven waiver adds. He deals with Noell, Bench, Nofziger, Maciuba, Bailey and, twice, Kane. Dang, Hartnett, Calderon, Nichols, MacDougall, Croushore, Dearolf, Rademaker and Dorenbusch never make a trade at all. All that dealing lands Hynes Justin Herbert, A.J. Brown and George Kittle and a 10-4 finish, and then Calderon, who never traded, knocks him out in week 16. The title goes to Maciuba, whose only trade is for a receiver Hynes let go.
Figures below are ppg as a starter, for the managers trading, with the number of starts in parens. Nico Collins reads 11.7(8) → 13.8(7): Hynes started him 8 times for 11.7, Kane 7 times for 13.8 after the trade. Green is as good or better after, red a decline.
Week 6 Hynes and Noell Hynes banks a chip for later
Hynes received
- Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.4(1) → 3.0(1)
- Woody Marks RB 2.4(1) → 6.6(5)
Noell received
- Mason Taylor TE 13.2(1) → 5.7(3)
- Ricky Pearsall WR 15.7(1) → 5.5(2)
- Michael Carter RB — → 7.4(1)
Hynes opens his autumn of dealing here, and none of the three men Noell takes away reaches 20 points for him. Pittman starts once for Hynes and becomes the price of Justin Herbert two weeks later, while Woody Marks gives him 33 points. Noell pays for it later, because Rome Odunze and Troy Franklin score 32 points in Pittman's spot, 32 short of what Pittman goes on to score for Bench.
Week 7 Hynes and Kane Two defenses swap and nobody notices
Hynes received
- Colts D/ST DST 8.0(6) → unused
Kane received
- Jets D/ST DST 0.0(1) → 1.0(2)
- Michael Mayer TE no starts either side
The busiest dealer in the league and the defending champion trade spare parts, and neither lineup notices. The Colts defense puts no points into Hynes's lineup and the Jets put two into Kane's. Michael Mayer is in ESPN's record of the deal but never on a weekly roster, so this list may be missing others who came and went inside the week.
Week 8 Bench and Hynes Hynes spins a spare into a quarterback
Bench received
- Michael Pittman Jr. WR 3.0(1) → 10.6(6)
Hynes received
- Justin Herbert QB 17.7(6) → 18.4(7)
Hynes turns a receiver he has held for two weeks into a quarterback who puts 129 points into his lineup the rest of the way. Bench can afford the sale with Dak Prescott, his week-four waiver claim, already starting, and Pittman gives him six starts of steady receiving. Both men fix something, and Hynes fixes the bigger thing by a distance.
Week 8 Hynes and Nofziger Nofziger takes the half that counts
Hynes received
- Stefon Diggs WR 10.4(1) → 8.9(1)
Nofziger received
- Calvin Ridley WR — → unused
- Daniel Jones QB 22.1(2) → 14.3(6)
Nofziger, 10-4 by season's end, takes a quarterback who puts 86 points into his lineup, though the other man he gets never scores for him. Hynes had been getting 7 points out of Sutton and Collins in that spot, and he starts his new receiver once before shipping him to Maciuba two weeks later. Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman leave Nofziger 22 points short of what Diggs scores for the champion, a fair price.
Week 10 Hynes and Maciuba Hynes arms the eventual champion
Hynes received
- Baker Mayfield QB 17.0(7) → unused
- Panthers D/ST DST 16.0(1) → 4.0(1)
Maciuba received
- Stefon Diggs WR 8.9(1) → 11.0(7)
Maciuba is 5-5 the week of this deal and wins his third title with a receiver from Hynes starting seven times along the way. Hynes gets a defense worth 4 points and a quarterback who puts no points into his lineup before being passed on to Kane. Diggs, started once each by Nofziger and Hynes, finally lands with a manager who keeps him in the lineup.
Week 11 Bailey and Hynes Bailey sells at the bottom
Bailey received
- Courtland Sutton WR 10.6(10) → 12.7(6)
- Quinshon Judkins RB 11.2(5) → 9.5(6)
- Oronde Gadsden TE 2.8(1) → 5.1(1)
Hynes received
- A.J. Brown WR 8.3(9) → 15.7(6)
- George Kittle TE 9.3(5) → 16.2(5)
Bailey, 1-9, sells to Hynes, 8-2, and both men headed to the contender score far better for him than they had in Bailey's lineup. Tetairoa McMillan and Judkins leave Bailey 44 points short of Brown in that spot, and Juwan Johnson and Gadsden leave him 32 short of Kittle. Sutton and Judkins earn their keep, but Hynes gets the two biggest scorers in the deal and still loses to Calderon in week 16.
Week 11 Hynes and Kane Kane buys a receiver for a lost year
Hynes received
- Drake London WR 16.4(8) → 9.8(2)
- Jayden Reed WR — → unused
Kane received
- Baker Mayfield QB — → unused
- Nico Collins WR 11.7(8) → 13.8(7)
Kane, the 2024 champion and the lowest scorer in the league, is 3-7 when he buys and finishes 3-11. He had been getting 34 points from Keenan Allen and Drake London in that spot, so Collins is a real upgrade, but the quarterback who comes with him puts no points into Kane's lineup. Hynes barely notices, covering the spot with Woody Marks and Michael Wilson, the Hartnett cast-off, for 75 points, 22 short of Collins.
Start and Sit
Dang won this by a nose, which is unfair on top of everything else, since he also scored more points than anybody. He started 1408 of an available 1529 points, 92.1%, and the nine points a week he left on the bench is the lightest tax in the league. Croushore came in a tenth of a percentage point behind at 92.0%, having given away 107 points all season, and he finished eleventh at 6-8 and out of the eight. He went 0-3 in games decided by under ten points. The most careful lineup work in the league bought him nothing, because what was beating him arrived from the other side of the scoreboard.
The rest of the table is no more just. MacDougall started 83.5% of what he owned and burned 222 points, 16 a week, and MacDougall's neighbour down there is Maciuba, who managed 84.8% and 221 points lost and then won the whole tournament. Hynes gave away 215 and still took third in the regular season. The loudest single entry belongs to Calderon, whose worst week cost him 48 points, comfortably past MacDougall's 40 and in a different category from the rest: that is not a man weighing two starters, it is a man who never opened the page. He lost 204 points across the year, 15 a week, and carried the 8 seed to the final anyway. Nobody in this league missed the bracket on account of a bad lineup.
The individual calls are where the shame lives. Dearolf started David Montgomery at flex in week 4 for 1.2 while Kenneth Gainwell scored 28.4 on the bench, a 27 point hole and the worst call of the season. Having watched that happen, he sat Gainwell for Montgomery again in week 11 and lost another 22 points. Croushore's one blemish is the same species: Calvin Austin III at flex in week 13 for nothing at all, with Rashee Rice and his 25 points parked behind him. Hartnett deserves no such treatment for week 4, when Ladd McConkey went for 1.6 and Romeo Doubs scored 27 on the bench. Starting a good receiver who has a bad Sunday is the game working as designed, and anybody who benches McConkey on a hunch has bigger problems than that week.
Optimal vs Actual Lineups
| # | Manager | Optimal | Started | Loss | Per week | Optimality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dang | 1528.9 | 1407.7 | 121.2 | 8.7 | 92.1% |
| 2 | Croushore | 1343.5 | 1236.1 | 107.4 | 7.7 | 92.0% |
| 3 | Noell | 1459.8 | 1320.4 | 139.4 | 10.0 | 90.5% |
| 4 | Nichols | 1335.7 | 1189.7 | 146.0 | 10.4 | 89.1% |
| 5 | Nofziger | 1444.6 | 1280.3 | 164.3 | 11.7 | 88.6% |
| 6 | Kane | 1168.5 | 1033.0 | 135.5 | 9.7 | 88.4% |
| 7 | Dorenbusch | 1395.7 | 1223.9 | 171.8 | 12.3 | 87.7% |
| 8 | Bailey | 1261.6 | 1095.1 | 166.5 | 11.9 | 86.8% |
| 9 | Rademaker | 1314.4 | 1140.2 | 174.2 | 12.4 | 86.7% |
| 10 | Bench | 1360.6 | 1175.5 | 185.1 | 13.2 | 86.4% |
| 11 | Calderon | 1500.9 | 1296.9 | 204.0 | 14.6 | 86.4% |
| 12 | Dearolf | 1430.5 | 1231.1 | 199.4 | 14.2 | 86.1% |
| 13 | Hartnett | 1421.9 | 1224.0 | 197.9 | 14.1 | 86.1% |
| 14 | Hynes | 1470.9 | 1255.7 | 215.2 | 15.4 | 85.4% |
| 15 | Maciuba | 1458.8 | 1237.5 | 221.3 | 15.8 | 84.8% |
| 16 | MacDougall | 1342.9 | 1121.3 | 221.6 | 15.8 | 83.5% |
The Worst Single Calls
| Week | Manager | Started | Sat | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dearolf | David Montgomery 1.2 | Kenneth Gainwell 28.4 | 27.2 |
| 2 | Noell | Aaron Jones Sr. 2.3 | Rome Odunze 28.3 | 26.0 |
| 13 | Croushore | Calvin Austin III 0.0 | Rashee Rice 25.4 | 25.4 |
| 4 | Hartnett | Ladd McConkey 1.6 | Romeo Doubs 26.8 | 25.2 |
| 1 | Hynes | Dak Prescott 7.5 | Daniel Jones 29.4 | 21.9 |
| 15 | Dorenbusch | Taysom Hill 0.2 | Darren Waller 22.1 | 21.9 |
| 11 | Dearolf | David Montgomery 4.2 | Kenneth Gainwell 26.0 | 21.8 |
| 1 | Nofziger | Xavier Worthy 0.0 | Keon Coleman 21.2 | 21.2 |
The Awards
Best Drafter
Maciuba
Maciuba built the thing in August out of men the rest of the room had crossed off, and he finished the year as the only manager in fifteen seasons here with three titles.
Best Lineup Setter
Dang
Dang wrung more out of his roster than anybody and led the league in scoring for it, then went out in the first round with 89 points on the board.
Best Pickup Artist
Croushore
A robot handed Croushore a draft 285 points light and he spent the season quietly repairing it on the wire, which is more than most of these managers do with a draft they made themselves.
Best Trader
Kane
The defending champion outsourced every pick to the software and finished last in the league for points, so it is worth noting that the two deals he made with his own hands he won.
Team by Team
Dang Best team in the league, out in the first round
Dang scored 1407.7 points, more than anybody, and went 155-55 against the whole field, which is worth 10.3 wins against the ten the schedule actually gave him. He also ran the tidiest lineup in the league at 92.1%, losing nine points a week to his own bench, the lightest tax anyone paid. Jaxson Dart arrived off the wire for 156 points in eight starts, having been dropped by the man who finished third. Then week 15 held him to 88.6 points against Maciuba's 98.8, and the best season in the league lasted one afternoon of the bracket.
Nofziger Two wins of schedule and the Diggs that won it
Nofziger was 4-0 and top of the league after four weeks and never fell out of the top three, finishing 10-4 on an all-play record of 120-90 that is worth eight wins. The extra two came from the fixture list and a 2-0 mark in games decided by under ten points. In week 8 he sold Stefon Diggs to Hynes and took Daniel Jones back for 86 points, which was sound business right up until Diggs moved on to Maciuba in week 10 and spent the rest of the year in a title-winning lineup. Nichols put him out in the first round, 109 to 98.
Hynes Worked harder than anyone, third and out
Hynes was 8-2 and first in the league at the ten-week mark, and he got there on 57 acquisitions, seven trades and 53% of his scoring from men he never drafted. The record ran ahead of the team: 109-99 against the field is worth 7.3 wins, and he went 3-0 in games decided by under ten points, one of them the 0.4 point win over Croushore in week 3. He also left 215 points on his bench across the season, more than anybody outside the bottom two of that table. Calderon ended it in the second round, 115 to 92.
Hartnett The luckiest 1 seed on the page
Hartnett was 1-3 and thirteenth after four weeks and finished as the top seed, on the ninth-most points in the league and an all-play record of 106-104. That is 7.1 deserved wins against the ten he banked, the largest gift the schedule handed anybody this year, and he was 1-2 in close games while receiving it. His twelve waiver claims found 71 points, the least in the league and 5% of his scoring, so the roster he drafted in August was more or less the roster he took into December. Calderon removed him 120 to 99 in the first week of the bracket.
Noell Second in scoring, sixty points when it counted
Noell scored 1320 points, second only to Dang, and went 9-5 against a 136-74 all-play record worth 9.1 wins, which makes him one of the few men here the schedule treated honestly. Six of his fourteen picks were made by the robot, and the notable one he made himself was Tyreek Hill at 29, who returned 43 points before the season took him. Week 15 gave him 59.7 points against Hynes, the lowest score anyone posted in the bracket.
Calderon Eighth seed to the final, beaten by Maciuba again
Calderon was 5-5 and eighth after ten weeks, finished 8-6 on a record worth 8.5 wins, and then took the 8 seed through the 1 seed and the 4 seed in consecutive weeks. He did it on the third-most points in the league and 45 waiver adds, more than anyone bar Hynes, while leaking 204 points to his own bench including one week worth 48. He now has two titles, 2013 and 2017, and two finals lost, both of them to Maciuba, ten years apart.
Maciuba Ninth at week ten, champion at week seventeen
Maciuba was 5-5 and ninth at the ten-week mark, sixth in scoring, and 107-103 against the field for 7.1 deserved wins, which is to say the regular season gave no notice of what was coming. The one sign was week 9, when he put up 137.8 points, the highest score anybody managed all year, and he came within half a point of it again in the semi-final. That is three titles now, 2015, 2021 and 2025, and Calderon has been the man on the other side of two of them.
Nichols Drafted in August, coasted to a semi-final
Nichols drafted more points than anybody and then behaved as though the work were finished, making thirteen adds, leaving 73% of his waiver budget unspent and taking 8% of his scoring off the wire. It held up well enough for eleventh in points at 1190, an 8-6 record and a semi-final, though the all-play mark of 97-113 says the season was worth 6.5 wins. Week 5 is the emblem, when 64.4 points was the cheapest winning score of the year because Bailey could only find 55.6.
Bench Second after four weeks, ninth after fourteen
Bench was 3-1 and second in the league after four weeks and 7-7 and ninth by the end, which is still better than a 92-118 all-play record worth 6.1 wins deserved. Four of his picks were made by the robot, and the Dak Prescott claim in week 4 quietly covered for all of them. That claim also made Justin Herbert expendable, so he sent him to Hynes in week 8 for Michael Pittman, and Herbert scored 129 points afterwards against Pittman's 64.
MacDougall 7-7 on a five-win team
MacDougall went 4-1 in games decided by under ten points and 7-7 overall, on the fourteenth-most points in the league and a 78-132 all-play record worth 5.2 wins. Only Kane and Bailey fared worse against the whole field, and both of them finished 3-11. He also started the smallest share of his available points of anybody at 83.5%, giving away 222 points across the year, which is sixteen a week from a team with none to spare.
Croushore The best-run season that missed the bracket
The robot made all fourteen of his picks and Croushore still finished seventh in the league on 1236 points, with the second-cleanest lineup work at 92.0% and the best return per waiver add anybody managed. The return on all that was 6-8 and a seat at home, because his 111-99 record against the field was worth 7.4 wins and he lost all three of his games decided by under ten points, one of them by 0.4.
Dearolf Josh Allen and a bench full of mistakes
Dearolf took Josh Allen at 31 and got 362 points out of him, more than any player scored for anybody in this league, and finished 6-8. He was 2-5 after seven weeks, had 1299 points scored against him, second-most in the league, and his 107-102 all-play record was worth 7.2 wins, so a chunk of that was weather. The part that was his own is Kenneth Gainwell, whom he benched for David Montgomery in week 4 for the worst call of the season and then, having watched it happen, benched for David Montgomery again in week 11.
Rademaker Last year's runner-up, this year's 4-10
Rademaker lost the 2024 final and came back to finish 4-10 on the thirteenth-most points in the league. Joe Burrow at 39 was a defensible pick in August and spent the season in the training room, which is not a thing he chose, and Travis Etienne at 122 for 232 points was the one that paid off. What he chose was to spend his entire waiver budget on nine adds that found 97 points between them, 7% of his scoring. The all-play record of 87-122 is worth 5.8 wins, so the schedule took nearly two off a season that was already thin.
Dorenbusch The unluckiest season in the league
Nobody here had a worse year handed to him. Dorenbusch scored 1224 points, tenth in the league, went 104-106 against the whole field for 6.9 deserved wins, and finished 3-11 because 1363 points were scored against him, more than against anybody else. Nichols reached the semi-final on 1190 points. He was 2-2 and seventh after four weeks, and everything that followed arrived from the other side of the scoreboard.
Bailey Two titles in the cabinet, 1-9 at the posts
Bailey was 1-3, then 1-6, then 1-9 through ten weeks, and 1-4 in games decided by under ten points, which is how a season worth 5.3 wins comes out at 3-11. He finished fifteenth in scoring on 1095 points, and Austin Ekeler at 86 was a bad read rather than bad fortune. In week 11 he sent A.J. Brown and George Kittle to Hynes, and what he played in those two spots afterwards cost him 44 points against Brown and 32 against Kittle. The man has titles from 2014 and 2019 to remind him this is not how it usually goes.
Kane A title defence left to the robot
The defending champion handed all fourteen picks to the software, finished last in the league on 1033 points and went 3-11 on a 61-149 all-play record, the worst in the league by a wide margin and worth 4.1 wins. At three collected against 4.1 deserved there is no schedule to appeal to. The one part of the year that worked was the wire, where seven adds, fewer than anybody else made, returned 421 points and nearly a third of his scoring, and where buying Nico Collins off Hynes in week 11 brought in 97 points after the deal.