Bot fills both of Bailey's holes

The roster that came out of it projects for 1602.3 points, fifth of sixteen, and the good parts are genuinely good. St. Brown is fourth of sixteen among this league's WR1s. Tee Higgins, scooped three spots past his market at 56, is fifth of sixteen among the WR2s at 195.2 points, with the standing asterisk that he has not played a full season since 2020. Dak Prescott's 315.8 points is sixth of sixteen. The Rams D/ST at 124.4 points is fourth of sixteen, and it is the third time Bailey has drafted that defense after 2014 and 2021. The 2014 one ended with him beating Hynes for the title, which is a thinner piece of evidence than he treats it as, but it is evidence.

Then there is Juwan Johnson, 127.0 points, sixteenth of sixteen among this league's starting tight ends, in a league where the best of them is projected for 201.0 points. Bailey starts that man every week, and he did not choose him. The chances were there: Harold Fannin Jr. at 158.0 points and George Kittle at 155.0 points were both on the board when Bailey took Prescott at 73, and they went at 80 and 83. He used the rounds in between on a fourth running back, Jordan Mason, taken three spots ahead of the market at 120 with 34 career targets to his name. The repair job arrived at pick 201, where Dalton Schultz and his 115.1 points are real insurance against the league's worst starting tight end. It tells the whole story that the smartest thing Bailey did all night was buy a backup for the one position the robot had to fill for him.

1602.3 points, 5 of 16
SlotPlayerProjAt this slot
QB Dak Prescott 315.8 6 of 16
RB Kenneth Walker III 248.9 10 of 16
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 261.3 4 of 16
WR Tee Higgins 195.2 5 of 16
TE Juwan Johnson 127.0 16 of 16
DST Rams D/ST 124.4 4 of 16
K Trey Smack 136.0 16 of 16
FLEX Bucky Irving 193.7 8 of 16
Bench
WR DK Metcalf 162.5 WR33 overall
RB J.K. Dobbins 165.5 RB29 overall
RB Jordan Mason 145.6 RB35 overall
WR Tre Tucker 113.8 WR60 overall
RB Mike Washington Jr. 81.7 RB55 overall
TE Dalton Schultz 115.1 TE20 overall

Half-PPR season points. The lineup is fixed by draft order, so switching service changes the numbers and never who is in the chair. The written copy above is from the median and does not move.

RdOverallPlayerPosVerdict
1 9 Amon-Ra St. Brown auto WR 4 vs 4 routine

A robot made this one and got it exactly right: the fourth receiver off the board, 261.3 points, precisely where the market had him. Three of Bailey's fourteen picks were autodrafted, which at least beats the ten some other manager let the machine handle.

2 24 Kenneth Walker III RB 13 vs 12 routine

Walker at 248.9 points is a defensible RB1, but Josh Allen and his 370.0 points were sitting on ESPN's board here and went four picks later at 28. Bailey's quarterback room finished sixth of sixteen.

3 41 Bucky Irving RB 19 vs 21 questionable

Irving is coming off 3.40 yards per carry and zero carries inside the opponent's five, and he cost a third-rounder while Cam Skattebo (208.6 points) sat on the board and went at 49. Zay Flowers, 210.3 points, went at 42.

4 56 Tee Higgins questionable WR 24 vs 21 value

Higgins fell three spots past his market and Bailey scooped him at 195.2 points, which is good business right up until the Questionable tag on a man who has not played a full season since 2020 does what it usually does.

5 73 Dak Prescott QB 7 vs 7 routine

No argument with Prescott as the seventh quarterback at exactly the seventh quarterback's price. The argument is that Harold Fannin Jr. (158.0 points) and George Kittle (155.0 points) were both on this board and went at 80 and 83, and Bailey would not touch the tight end position for another four rounds.

6 88 DK Metcalf questionable WR 36 vs 32 value

Four spots past his market is real value, though Metcalf is the second Questionable receiver Bailey took in three rounds and he is a bench player either way. Rico Dowdle, 172.6 points, went three picks later at 91.

7 105 J.K. Dobbins RB 36 vs 34 routine
8 120 Jordan Mason RB 39 vs 42 reach

A fourth running back, taken three spots ahead of the market, by a team that still had nothing at tight end. Mason has 34 career targets in his life and Jayden Reed (144.9 points) went at 127.

9 137 Juwan Johnson auto TE 16 vs 18 questionable

The robot finally took a tight end because the human would not, and the bill is a starting TE at 127.0 points, sixteenth of sixteen in this league, where the best is 201.0 points.

10 152 Rams D/ST DST 2 vs 2 routine

The third time Bailey has drafted this defense, after 2014 and 2021. The 2014 one ended with him beating Hynes for the title, so the habit has at least one piece of evidence behind it, and 124.4 points is fourth of sixteen here.

11 169 Tre Tucker WR routine
12 184 Mike Washington Jr. RB questionable

CBS says 123.3 points and ESPN says 62.6 for the same rookie, which is another way of saying nobody has any idea. Jerry Jeudy and his 113.9 points went six picks later at 190.

13 201 Dalton Schultz TE routine

Credit where it is owed: at pick 201 Schultz and his 115.1 points are genuine insurance against the worst starting tight end in the league, and this is the closest thing to a repair job Bailey did all night.

14 216 Trey Smack auto K questionable

The robot's third and final contribution is a kicker projected for 136.0 points, sixteenth of sixteen in this league, where the best is 171.5 points.

Keeps going back to

  • Rams D/ST — 2014, 2021, 2026
  • Lamar Jackson — 2019, 2023, 2025
  • Jared Goff — 2016, 2018, 2024
  • Samaje Perine — 2017, 2023, 2024