Hynes hunts a second receiver, four tight ends vanish behind him

Fifth overall is the best slot Hynes has drawn since 2021, and he spent the top of it exactly the way the board says he should have: Christian McCaffrey at 5, Josh Allen at 28, nothing to argue about from any direction. All fourteen picks were made by hand, too. He let the robot have two in 2020 and one in 2022, so this year there is no alibi sitting in the draft log. Everything below is his.

Then pick 69 arrived and Hynes took Christian Watson, a fine receiver at a fair price, and the tight end aisle emptied out behind him while he was doing it. Kyle Pitts went at 70. Sam LaPorta at 72. Harold Fannin Jr. at 80. George Kittle at 83. By the time Hynes got around to the position at 101 the survivor was Isaiah Likely, who will now start sixteen games at 129.9 points, 14th of sixteen in a league where the best tight end projects for 201.0 points. That is not a bad pick, it is the bill for a good one taken eight rounds too late.

The finished roster is a barbell with nothing in the middle. Allen's 370.0 points are the most of any QB1 in this league, McCaffrey's 293.0 points rank third among RB1s, and D'Andre Swift's 207.0 points are the fifth-best flex in the field. Everything after that is a problem he starts every week: Mike Evans opens as the WR1 at 165.0 points, 15th of sixteen, in a league whose best WR1 is at 291.0 points, with Watson 13th of sixteen behind him. The Jaguars D/ST is 15th. Spencer Shrader is 15th. Three starting slots at 15th of sixteen and a tight end at 14th add up to 1575.8 points, ninth in the league. Taking a 33-year-old receiver five spots early is also very much in character for the man who drafted Frank Gore in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and Latavius Murray in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Hynes has been to one championship game in fifteen seasons, lost it to Bailey in 2014, and has now built the kind of team that wins whatever week Josh Allen decides it should.

1575.8 points, 9 of 16
SlotPlayerProjAt this slot
QB Josh Allen 370.0 1 of 16
RB Christian McCaffrey 293.0 3 of 16
WR Mike Evans 165.0 15 of 16
WR Christian Watson 167.5 13 of 16
TE Isaiah Likely 129.9 14 of 16
DST Jaguars D/ST 103.9 15 of 16
K Spencer Shrader 139.5 15 of 16
FLEX D'Andre Swift 207.0 5 of 16
Bench
WR Stefon Diggs 135.5 WR52 overall
WR De'Zhaun Stribling 130.0 WR53 overall
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. 95.3 RB46 overall
RB Brian Robinson Jr. 89.5 RB49 overall
WR Caleb Douglas 91.6 WR73 overall
WR Tre' Harris 87.0 WR78 overall

Half-PPR season points. The lineup is fixed by draft order, so switching service changes the numbers and never who is in the chair. The written copy above is from the median and does not move.

RdOverallPlayerPosVerdict
1 5 Christian McCaffrey RB 3 vs 4 routine
2 28 Josh Allen QB 1 vs 1 routine
3 37 D'Andre Swift questionable RB 18 vs 20 questionable

Swift was carrying a Questionable tag on draft day and went in the third round anyway, two spots ahead of where the market had him. George Pickens, 217.2 points and healthy, came off the board one pick later at 38.

4 60 Mike Evans WR 26 vs 31 reach

Five spots ahead of his market for a 33-year-old coming off a nine-game absence, and his 165.0 points now make him the 15th-best WR1 in a 16-team league. Jameson Williams (182.3 points) went at 63 and Luther Burden III (183.0 points) at 65.

5 69 Christian Watson WR 32 vs 33 questionable

Watson himself went right on market, but the tight end aisle emptied while Hynes was taking a second receiver: Kyle Pitts at 70, Sam LaPorta at 72, Harold Fannin Jr. at 80, George Kittle at 83. That is how Isaiah Likely and his 129.9 points ended up starting at tight end, 14th of 16 in this league.

6 92 Stefon Diggs WR 38 vs 36 questionable

A 32-year-old at 135.5 points who does not even crack the lineup, taken by a roster whose starting receivers rank 15th and 13th in the league. Brian Thomas Jr. (148.1 points) sat unpicked until 108 and Jakobi Meyers (145.7 points) until 102.

7 101 Isaiah Likely TE 15 vs 13 routine
8 124 De'Zhaun Stribling WR 49 vs 49 questionable

Hynes had already spent picks on Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans, so the rookie he drafted here is competing against his own roster for San Francisco targets. Jayden Reed (144.9 points) went at 127 and Romeo Doubs (140.5 points) at 129.

9 133 Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB questionable

A back with seven career targets, projected at 69.8 points by ESPN and 118.7 by CBS, which is the sound of nobody knowing what he is. Tyjae Spears (129.5 points) went at 138 and KC Concepcion (138.3 points) at 136.

10 156 Brian Robinson Jr. RB questionable

Robinson's whole value is insurance on Bijan Robinson, who belongs to somebody else in this league. Jerry Jeudy (113.9 points) went unclaimed until 190.

11 165 Caleb Douglas WR routine
12 188 Jaguars D/ST DST routine
13 197 Spencer Shrader K routine
14 220 Tre' Harris questionable WR questionable

The final pick of the draft went on a receiver listed Questionable who opens the year third or fourth in line in Los Angeles, at 87.0 points. Chig Okonkwo and his 100.5 points went undrafted by all sixteen teams, on a roster that starts a 129.9-point tight end.

Keeps going back to

  • Matthew Stafford — 2013, 2021, 2022
  • Jordan Howard — 2016, 2018, 2020
  • Latavius Murray — 2016, 2017, 2018
  • Frank Gore — 2012, 2013, 2014