MacDougall makes all fourteen picks himself, machine owns the three finals

Fourteen picks, none of them autodrafted. Going back as far as this archive counts autopicks, MacDougall has never managed that: four went to the machine in 2019, three in 2020, two in 2021, and in 2022 he handed over the keys entirely and let it make all fifteen. The climb back has been methodical — fifteen, ten, seven, one, and now none. The uncomfortable footnote is what the machine did with those keys. The all-robot 2022 team reached the final. So did the ten-autopick 2023 team. So did the 2019 team, which also had four picks made for it. Three championship games, three losses, and the common thread in every one of them is that Gordon MacDougall was not entirely the one drafting.

This time he was, and the first thing he did with full control at 82 was have the Dallas Goedert Buyer's Club buy Dallas Goedert, two spots ahead of the market, one pick before George Kittle and his 155.0 points came off the board at 83. Later he took the Chiefs defence at 175 and the Chiefs kicker at 178, back to back, which is simply the Justin Tucker standing order of 2015, 2018 and 2024 relocated to Missouri.

The top of the roster is genuinely fine. Derrick Henry at 267.7 points is the fifth-best RB1 in the league and A.J. Brown at 220.0 points is the seventh-best WR1, on Brown's third MacDougall draft after 2019 and 2023. Then the floor gives way. DJ Moore is the WR2 at 173.0 points, twelfth of sixteen at the slot. Justin Herbert is twelfth of sixteen among starting quarterbacks at 303.4 points, which would be survivable if Baker Mayfield and his 289.4 points were not sitting on the bench where they cannot be started, bought at 111 while the receiving corps stayed exactly as thin as it is. Goedert is the tenth-best TE1 at 147.7 points and has missed at least two games in each of the last six seasons, a fact MacDougall clearly knows, because he spent pick 210 on Pat Freiermuth to cover it. The lineup projects to 1552.6 points, eleventh of sixteen. Nothing here is last in the league. Nothing is close to first either.

1552.6 points, 11 of 16
SlotPlayerProjAt this slot
QB Justin Herbert 303.4 12 of 16
RB Derrick Henry 267.7 5 of 16
WR A.J. Brown 220.0 7 of 16
WR DJ Moore 173.0 12 of 16
TE Dallas Goedert 147.7 10 of 16
DST Chiefs D/ST 104.8 11 of 16
K Harrison Butker 147.0 7 of 16
FLEX Bhayshul Tuten 189.0 9 of 16
Bench
QB Baker Mayfield 289.4 QB17 overall
WR Jordan Addison 148.7 WR37 overall
RB Tyler Allgeier 88.5 RB51 overall
WR Keenan Allen 112.4 WR62 overall
RB Najee Harris 66.0 RB60 overall
TE Pat Freiermuth 104.0 TE24 overall

Half-PPR season points. The lineup is fixed by draft order, so switching service changes the numbers and never who is in the chair. The written copy above is from the median and does not move.

RdOverallPlayerPosVerdict
1 15 Derrick Henry RB 10 vs 8 routine
2 18 A.J. Brown WR 7 vs 8 routine

Third time MacDougall has drafted Brown, after 2019 and 2023, and the first time he has had to check which team the man plays for.

3 47 Bhayshul Tuten questionable RB 21 vs 23 questionable

Tuten was listed Questionable on draft day and went two spots ahead of the market anyway, on 83 career carries. Cam Skattebo and his 208.6 points sat there for two more picks and went at 49.

4 50 DJ Moore WR 20 vs 23 reach

Three spots ahead of the market for a receiver coming off a 16% target share, while Tee Higgins (195.2 points) lasted until 56 and Davante Adams (187.9 points) until 55. Moore is the WR2 here at 173.0 points, 12th of 16 at the slot.

5 79 Justin Herbert QB 10 vs 10 routine
6 82 Dallas Goedert TE 9 vs 11 questionable

The Dallas Goedert Buyer's Club bought Dallas Goedert, two spots ahead of the market, and George Kittle and his 155.0 points went one pick later at 83. Goedert has missed at least two games in each of the past six seasons and is coming off eleven touchdowns against an expected 5.1.

7 111 Baker Mayfield QB 16 vs 18 questionable

Herbert was already in at 303.4 points, which makes Mayfield's 289.4 points the most expensive bench ornament in this draft. The starting receiver corps behind A.J. Brown is DJ Moore at 173.0 points, and Quentin Johnston (152.8 points) was still on the board until 117.

8 114 Jordan Addison WR 45 vs 43 routine
9 143 Tyler Allgeier RB questionable

Allgeier is the insurance policy on Jeremiyah Love, a running back who belongs to somebody else in this league. Zach Charbonnet and his 121.0 points went four picks later at 147.

10 146 Keenan Allen WR routine

Third Keenan Allen draft, after 2019 and 2020, and the services cannot agree what is left of him: ESPN says 96.7 points, CBS says 128.4 points.

11 175 Chiefs D/ST DST routine
12 178 Harrison Butker K 7 vs 8 routine

The Chiefs defence at 175 and the Chiefs kicker at 178, back to back. He drafted Justin Tucker three times across 2015, 2018 and 2024, so the standing kicker habit has simply moved cities.

13 207 Najee Harris RB questionable

Harris at 66.0 points, with RotoBaller down at 54.6, when Jauan Jennings and his 106.0 points were sitting right there and did not go until 219.

14 210 Pat Freiermuth TE routine

Goedert has missed at least two games in each of the past six years, so the backup tight end is the one piece of forward planning in this draft.

Keeps going back to

  • Keenan Allen — 2019, 2020, 2026
  • A.J. Brown — 2019, 2023, 2026
  • Justin Tucker — 2015, 2018, 2024
  • James White — 2016, 2019, 2021
  • Vikings D/ST — 2016, 2017, 2020